Robusta coffee term September 2022 (LRCU22) continued its slight decline after many sessions failed to conquer the 2000 mark, down 11 USD (-0.55%), closing price at 1987 USD/ton.
Thus, after 11 years, the first time the ECB raised the EUR interest rate, the deposit interest rate no longer maintained the negative interest rate but increased to 0%, the refinancing interest rate also increased from 0% to 0.5%, higher than compared to the previous year. With a forecast of 0.25%, the EUR had a strong appreciation phase after the interest rate announcement but then gradually declined and is currently trading around 1 EUR = 1.0190 USD. The USD weakened slightly against a basket of foreign currencies 0.075% at 107.
In general, this move of the ECB was predicted by the market and reflected in the price before, so the currency and commodity markets did not have any significant fluctuations after the data was released. Investors remained on the sidelines, low trading volume caused coffee on both exchanges to have a cautious decline.
According to the General Department of Vietnam Customs, Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first half of July decreased by 2.46% over the same period, reaching 58.3 thousand tons ~ 972.5 thousand bags. In the first 7 months of 2022, Vietnam’s coffee exports totaled 1,077 thousand tons ~ 17.95 million bags, up 19.3% over the same period last year.
According to technical analysis, the price of Robusta coffee is still struggling to accumulate and not break through the 1995-200 zone. The daily chart and the 1H frame both give reliable signals, the price trend has not been established clearly. Need to monitor more USD interest rate information and USD strength and wait for clear technical signals to have a suitable trading strategy.
II. HINTS BUY/SELL STRATEGY IN THE Session (refer).
NEW BUYING CL:
- Support zone 1: 1960-1965 USD,
- Support zone 2: 1940-1945 USD,
- Proportional buy, stop loss $1925.
CL SELL DOWN:
- Resistance level 1: 2010-2015 USD,
- Resistance level 2: 2035-2040 USD,
- Proportional sell, stop loss $2075.
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