Robusta coffee term 03/2023 (LRCH23) reversed to increase thanks to the support of monetary factors, increasing by 70 USD (+3.87%), closing price at 1,881 USD/ton.
The US consumer price index (CPI) data for December released yesterday made the currency and commodity markets have strong changes. Specifically, the core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) increased by 0.3% last month and increased by 5.7% compared to a year ago. Meanwhile, core CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month. Thus, it can be seen that the growth rate of the consumer price index has decreased, showing that the price pressure in the US is cooling down, so the market expects the Fed will make a move to reduce the rate of interest rate increase in February (predicted for the first time). is an increase of 0.25%. This has impacted US bond yields and the DXY index both down. The price of both coffee floors turned green and recovered thanks to the benefit of the weakening USD.
According to a report by the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, Vietnam’s coffee exports in December 2022 increased by 53.5% over the previous month to 197,077 tons. In general, in 2022, Vietnam exported 1.78 million tons of coffee, up 13.8% over the previous year. Vietnam’s coffee export turnover in 2022 will reach 4.1 billion USD. This factor has had a negative impact on the price of Robusta coffee.
According to technical analysis, thanks to the information that US CPI supported, yesterday’s impressive rally and recovery helped the technical reversal signals to be more positive. RSI recovered to the average level of 54.59% while MACD crossed up, Robusta price also crossed the MA50 at 1875, so temporarily the uptrend prevails in the short term. It is expected that the price may continue to gain strength and find resistance to the 1900 zone. If the price can close and sustain above this psychological resistance level, it will be a positive bright spot for the upcoming Robusta coffee price.
HINTS BUY/SELL STRATEGY IN THE Session (refer).
NEW BUYING CL:
- Support zone 1: 1830-1835 USD,
- Support zone 2: 1780-1785 USD,
- Proportional buy, stop loss $1754.
CL SELL DOWN:
- Resistance level 1: 1905-1910 USD,
- Resistance level 2: 1935-1940 USD,
- Sell proportionally, stop loss 1985 USD.
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