Pepper prices in 2017 were no longer as high as 2 years ago and it will be difficult to have a high chance of returning as 2014/2015 period is what anyone who is interested in the item of Pepper is aware. However, since the beginning of May, prices seem to be falling faster, partly because of psychological factors?
Look at the total global supply of pepper
2017 is a good year for many pepper growing areas in Vietnam. Along with a large area of pepper from 2010-2012 now beginning to harvest has led to a sharp increase in Vietnam's pepper output compared to 2016, contributing an additional 30,000 tons to the global supply. In addition, the other two major producing countries this year also increased production: India and Brazil. In the 2017 crop, India's pepper output increased by about 7,000 tons compared to the 2016 crop. Brazil also produced about 10,000 tons higher than the previous year. In addition to about 10,000 tons of Cambodia, in 2017 the global supply may be higher than the previous year 55,000 – 60,000 tons.
Until now, there is no exact figure of what the total global supply in 2017 will be by July – August to Indonesia, China, and the two countries contributing significantly to the total global supply of new pepper that have just begun to be harvested. However, with Indonesia, IPC has just conducted a survey in April 2017, saying that the growth of pepper in major pepper growing areas such as Lampung, Bangka and East Kalimantan shows that Indonesia will lose its crop and the fruit will be relatively small. , productivity is lower than the previous year due to unfavorable weather in the last months of 2016, prolonged severe drought, forecasting production will be lower than that of 2016. Also according to IPC, the world meteorological agency said Indonesia and Malaysia are countries that are forecasted to be more heavily affected by El Nino in 2017 than in previous years. The drought will be more severe in the coming months, so these countries' pepper output may be affected in a bad way.
Therefore, it is estimated that global pepper production in 2017 will be about 460,000 tons, about 10% higher than the 2016 crop.
A few points to note about the situation of world pepper demand in 2017
– India: According to Indian Spices Board, Indian pepper industry is still growing stronger. India is famous for its dozens of premium processed pepper products that are provided not only for the world food industry, but also for pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries, especially for the US and European markets. . Therefore, although it is a major producer of pepper, India always needs to import a large amount of pepper from countries including Vietnam, in the first 4 months of this year, the import volume has not decreased compared to 2015 and decreased compared to the year. 2016. As a result, India's 2017 supply increased but was almost not involved in exports, not to mention an increase in imports.
– America: VCN statistics show that in the first 4 months of 2017, US pepper imports reached over 13,000 tons, higher than 2015 and decreased compared to 2016. Besides, some countries in Central and South America such as Mexico, Chile increased. strong. Vietnam Customs figures show that the amount of pepper exported to the US is still stable, (although some rumors from India think that the US is not buying Vietnamese pepper).
– Europe: Germany is still the traditional market of Vietnam pepper, although imports in the first 4 months of 2017 decreased compared to 2016 but increased compared to 2015. He also nearly doubled imports compared to the same period of 2015 and 2016. The Russian market increased 4 times the import volume compared to the first 4 months of 2015, reaching about 400 tons / month today. Netherlands import volume at the beginning of 2017 is also about 500 tons / month, equivalent to the same period of 2016. Some markets such as Russia, Turkey, Belgium, Rumania, Sweden have increased imports compared to the previous year;
– Asia: The United Arab Emirates is still the leading country in Asia importing pepper from Vietnam, the amount of imports in the first 4 months of 2017 increased by more than 2016, about 200 tons higher than the same period in 2015. Papue New Guinea increased impressively, 4 The first month of 2017 imported more than 4,762 tons from Vietnam while the same period in the previous years did not import. China also imported over 1,100 tons per month in 2017, higher than 2016 and tripled compared to the same period in 2015. Sri Lanka did not import pepper from Vietnam in the previous years, but in the first four months of 2017, imported more than 1,500 tons.
– Africa: The increase is quite strong, including Sudan, Algery, Senegal, Gambia, Mali.
In general, despite the falling prices, Vietnam's pepper trade is still no less exciting than the same period in previous years. Exports in the first months of 2017 were always higher than the previous year. February 2017 exported 13,700 tons, 3,400 tons higher than February 2016, March 2017 exported 29,100 tons, about 5,000 tons higher than the same period in 2016. April 2017 exported 25,110 tons, still higher than April 2016 about 70 tons.
Currently, farmers from many key growing areas such as Chau Duc, Xuyen Moc (BR-VT), Hon Quan, Loc Ninh (Binh Phuoc), Buon Ho, Cu Kuin (Dak Lak), Dak Song, Dak R ' Lap (Dak Nong), Chu Se (Gia Lai) said that the market price emitted from the beginning of May has always been lower, but all places have reported a small amount of transactions since the price was below VND 90,000 / kg. , most people still do not intend to sell at this time.
The weather is signaling unfavorable conditions for the new pepper crop. At this time, most of the pepper plants are forming flower buds, but other than every year, the scattered rain from February is making the garden soil always wet, causing the roots of pepper (the most important part to decide the yield. tree) is at increased risk of pest and disease. Currently, pepper gardens have high density of nematodes, pepper roots have been damaged by pathogens, which will make nematodes more susceptible to invasion when the dry season comes, indicating a new crop output. .
According to the rule of many years, May – June is the time when countries reduce transactions, especially in Muslim countries, so the amount of pepper exported may slow down, the buyers only execute the contracts. After signing the contract, the amount of inventory purchased could decrease, making it difficult for domestic prices to rebound in Quarter II.
However, this long-term picture of supply and demand for this “king of spices” may not look as it looks at the moment.
According to a report of the General Department of Vietnam Customs, exports in the first half of May 2017 reached 11,102 tons of pepper of all kinds, with a value of $ 69.69 million, up 11.31% in volume but down 16, 82% in value compared to the same period last year. Average export price in the period reached US $ 5,376 / ton, down 5.22% compared to the average export price of April 2017 (Giatieu.com)
Source VPA (peppervietnam.com)
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