According to the world’s leading trader, measures of social distancing in Europe and the US earlier this year caused the recovery of global coffee consumption to slow, due to most restaurants and cafes. , beverage is temporarily closed.
Warehouse of the Neumann Coffee Group
According to Ms. Ana Wilks, head of research at the Hamburg-based business, Neumann Kaffee Gruppe no longer expects growth in global demand during coffee year ending September in most countries. nation. That makes the optimistic 0.9% consumption forecast made for December virtually empty.
The pandemic has closed cities from Paris to Los Angeles, severely impacting coffee consumption. Several countries in Europe have had to shut down three times, and it is only recently that UK cafes have begun to allow customers to stay outside instead of having to take it out.
“We do not see many opportunities to recover global coffee demand in the 2020/2021 crop year, especially as Europe has to take measures to make it socially different,” Ms. A.Wilks said in an interview. again”. “Even if coffee demand finally recovered with little restriction, it still took a while for the recovery to become normal,” she stressed.
According to the Neumann Coffee Group, the spread of covid-19 caused the demand for coffee to decrease by 1.5% in the previous season. Before the pandemic, they had expected consumption to increase by 0.5%. However, for other products and drinks, demand still increased quite well, for example, consumption of cocoa and gasoline both increased significantly.
On supply – demand
The global coffee market will be in short supply next season due to dry weather affecting production of Brazil, the world’s leading coffee producer and exporter. Currently, Neumann expects Brazilian production to fall by 9 million bags, in contrast to an oversupply of 6.9 million bags in the current coffee year 2020/2021.
But provided that global demand increases by less than 2% in the coming crop year 2021/2022. If global consumption increases at 2.5%, the coffee shortage could reach 13 million bags, or just 6 million bags shortages if consumption is flat, she said.
According to Neumann estimates, coffee growers in Brazil will harvest 33 million bags of Arabica coffee as the coffee plants enter the year for low cyclic yields. “Every two years” and dry weather had a negative early impact, compared with 38 million bags in last year’s crop and 52 million bags last year.
Estimated production of Conilon Robusta coffee will be at 20.5 million bags.
This forecast can still be revised downward depending on the weather in April but the biggest volatility is still market demand.
According to Mrs. A.Wilks, demand is always the most predictable, most stable and easiest factor in the balance of supply – demand. But today, it is a volatile unknown, very difficult to predict.
Mai Vy (according to the Bloomberg)
