Oil price drop
Crude oil prices fell as oil infrastructure suffered no major damage following earthquakes in Turkey and Syria, while US oil inventories rose and investors worried about a Fed rate hike. US Federal Reserve.
Ending the session on February 9, Brent crude oil fell $0.59 or 0.7% to $84.50 per barrel. WTI oil fell $0.41, or 0.5%, to $78.06 a barrel. Both of these oils are up more than 5% this week.
The quake, which killed more than 19,000 people, initially sent oil prices up due to the possibility that the disaster would cause severe damage to pipelines and other infrastructure.
A strong US jobs report stoked fears that the US Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates aggressively to curb inflation, putting pressure on riskier assets like oil and stocks.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, US crude inventories rose last week to 455.1 million barrels, the highest since June 2021, which also pushed oil prices down. Gasoline and distillate inventories also increased last week.
The prospect of stronger demand from China partially supported oil prices, as the world’s second-largest oil consumer ended more than three years of a strict zero-Covid policy.
ANZ analysts said they expect China’s oil consumption to grow by about 1 million bpd this year, with strong growth coming as early as the end of the first quarter.
A weaker USD also limits the decline in crude oil prices.
Gold fell
Gold prices fell as investors braced for interest rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve, with the market now focused on inflation data due to be released next week that could be an important factor for the plan. monetary policy of this central bank.
Spot gold fell 0.5% to $1,865.60 an ounce, rising to $1,890.18 after data on US jobless claims. US gold for April futures closed down 0.7% at $1,878.5 an ounce.
Futures are pricing in with the Fed’s target rate peaking at 5.1% in July, 25 basis points higher than last week.
Gold is extremely sensitive to rising US interest rates, which increases the cost of holding gold.
Copper prices rise on weak USD, optimism about Chinese demand
Copper prices rebounded as the dollar fell and bets that China’s metal demand will recover after the country lifts Covid-19 control measures.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.1 percent to $8,986 a tonne after falling 0.4 percent in the previous session and hitting a four-week low on Feb.
The US Comex rose 1.1% to $4.08/lb.
Supporting metal prices is the dollar index falling, partly due to the view that inflation has peaked and the Federal Reserve will be able to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes.
Hopes of stronger demand in China, the world’s top metal consumer, also support prices.
Iron ore recovers on China’s economic growth hopes
Iron ore prices rose, with Dalian iron ore hitting a one-week high after two days of declines, as sentiment returned to optimism ahead of the release of China lending data, a key indicator of growth support. economy.
Rising growth forecasts for China, the world’s top steel producer and iron ore consumer, also support sentiment.
Ratings agency Fitch has revised China’s economic growth forecast for 2023 to 5.0% from 4.1% previously as consumption and other activities are recovering faster than initially expected after at the end of the zero Covid mechanism.
Iron ore for May term on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, China closed up 2.6% to 863 CNY ($127.19)/ton. Before that, the price rose 3% to 866 CNY, the highest since 2/2.
In Singapore, the March iron ore contract rose 1.6 percent to $123.3 a tonne.
Iron ore prices, boosted by China’s policy support for the weak property sector and the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions, have fallen in recent days as investors watch. demand outlook.
In Shanghai, the price of bar steel increased 1.6%, hot rolled coil increased 1.8% and stainless steel decreased 0.4%.
Japanese rubber increased
Japanese rubber prices increased as the third quarter of 2022 profits of leading domestic automakers increased.
The July rubber contract on the Osaka exchange closed up 1.3 JPY or 0.6% to 227.4 JPY ($1.73)/kg.
In Shanghai, the price of rubber for May delivery decreased by 15 CNY to 12,645 CNY (US$1,864) per ton.
Toyota Motor Corporation announced that its profit in the third quarter of 2022 unexpectedly increased by 22%, due to the weak JPY and increased sales volume. Nissan Motor Group’s profit rose 155.2% in the third quarter of 2022, beating analyst estimates.
Indian rice price highest in 2 years, Thai rice down
Indian rice prices continued to rise to their highest levels in nearly two years on strong demand, while Thai rice prices fell for a second week in a row due to a weak baht and falling demand.
India’s 5% broken parboiled rice price was offered at $395-402/ton this week, up from $393-398/ton last week.
Thai rice 5% broken is offered at $480-490/ton, down from $495/ton last week.
A trader in Bangkok said that although prices are weak due to the exchange rate, demand remains weak as exporters see current prices as high. Another said prices could change as new supplies enter the market in early March.
High transportation costs also contributed to a decrease in supply and an increase in rice prices.
In Vietnam, the price of 5% broken rice was sold at $455-460/ton, up from $445-$450/ton a week ago. Vietnam’s rice exports in January decreased by 17.3% from the previous month to 359,310 tons.
In Bangladesh, domestic rice prices are still rising despite a good harvest. The government also imports rice while private importers have been licensed to import.
Rising sugar
Raw sugar for March futures closed up 0.25 US cents or 1.2% at 21.45 US cents/lb, edging towards a six-year high at 21.86 US cents reached last week.
The market was supported by new buy funds after finding solid support at 20.50 US cents on Feb.
The tight supply of swords (expected to last until the next harvest in the south-central region of Brazil) will strengthen around April, continuing to support prices.
March white sugar futures rose $3.4, or 0.6%, to $572.3 a tonne.
Reduced coffee
Arabica coffee for May delivery closed down 1.95 US cents, or 1.1%, at $1,737/lb, continuing its decline from a three-month high set last week.
However, Fitch Solutions said that supply for the remainder of 2023 is expected to be tighter than previously expected due to the prospect of reduced Brazilian output this year and recovery in demand.
Brazil exported 2.53 million bags (60 kg/bag) of coffee in January, 18.5% less than the same month a year earlier.
A Reuters poll showed Brazil’s coffee production this year at 67.1 million bags, significantly lower than the 71 million bags in a poll released in July 2022.
Robusta coffee for May delivery fell $25, or 1.2%, to $2,032 a tonne.
Coffee prices in Vietnam increased slightly this week due to increased demand for robusta coffee as farmers here are still not in a hurry to sell and Indonesia has not yet arrived.
In the Central Highlands, green coffee beans are sold at 42,400 – 44,000 VND/kg, up from 41,900 – 43,700 VND a week ago.
Some customers in Indonesia turn to Vietnam to buy while farmers sell in small quantities.
Vietnam’s coffee exports in January stood at 142,544 tons, down 27.7% from the previous month. Export turnover reached 310 million USD, down 27% compared to December 2022.
In Lampung province, Indonesia, coffee was offered for sale at a premium of $110 compared to the March futures contract on the ICE exchange, unchanged from a week ago.
The main coffee crop in southern Sumatra is usually mid-year, but some areas can start producing coffee from April to May.
Prices of some key items in the morning of February 10:
