Oil prices fall
Oil prices fell but overall the week increased slightly, despite repeated warnings from the International Energy Agency that the spread of coronavirus variants is slowing oil demand.
Closing session on August 13, Brent crude oil fell $0.72 or 1% to $70.59/barrel. WTI oil fell 0.65 or USD 0.9% to 68.44 USD/barrel. For the whole week, oil prices still increased slightly, compared to a sharp drop in the previous week.
Big banks Goldman Sachs and JPM Commodities Research are not very optimistic about oil due to the high number of Covid-19 infections.
Goldman cut its estimate of the global oil shortfall to 1 million bpd from 2.3 million bpd in the short term, due to a drop in oil demand in August and September. However, Goldman forecasts Expect the demand recovery to continue along with an increasing rate of vaccination.
While JPM rates a stagnating global demand recovery this month with demand still equivalent to 98 million bpd average for global consumption in July.
In contrast, OPEC kept its forecast for a recovery in global oil demand this year and continuing into 2022, despite growing concerns about a spike in Covid-19 infections.
According to energy services firm Baker Hughes, US energy companies added the most rigs in a week since April when the total rig count more than doubled the record low a year ago.
Gas prices in Asia continue to rise on strong demand
Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) continued its upward trend this week as demand remained strong in the region, although the number of coronavirus cases in China – the world’s second-largest LNG importer – continued. The increase restrained the price increase.
The average September LNG delivery price in Northeast Asia is estimated at $17.05/mmBtu, up 15 US cents from last week. Shipments delivered in October are estimated at USD 17.3/mmBtu.
Global gas prices have surged this summer, due to high demand in Asia combined with unbelievably low inventories in Europe, analysts from Bank of America said. Shipping disruptions in China due to the coronavirus may have weighed on prices.
Gold price increases
Spot gold rose 1.4% to $1,776.21 an ounce. US gold for December delivery closed up 1.5% at $1,778.2 an ounce.
The precious metal has rebounded sharply after falling below a four-month low on fears the Fed will begin cutting economic support following a strong US jobs report last week.
Also supporting gold prices is increased demand for spot gold, especially from top consuming countries such as India and China.
Copper price increases
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange LME rose 1.3% to $9,587 a tonne and rose for the whole week after falling 2.7% the previous week.
A survey by the University of Michigan showed US consumer sentiment fell to a decade low as Americans took a pessimistic view of everything from personal finances to inflation and unemployment.
A weak dollar makes metals cheaper for holders of other currencies. Global stocks hit record highs following US data, underscoring demand for riskier assets.
A strike was prevented at the world’s largest copper mine Escondida in Chile, alleviating supply concerns. But workers said they would refuse to work at a mine owned by Codelco and at JX Nippon Copper operations.
Copper stocks at LME warehouses were near their highest since May 2020 at 222,600 tonnes while Shanghai stocks fell 6.5% to 93,032 tonnes.
Dalian iron ore declines
Blast furnace capacity utilization at 247 Chinese factories recovered slightly to 85.89% this week, but still below 95.16% a year earlier, according to data from consulting firm Mysteel.
Iron ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell about 4.2 percent to 814 yuan ($215.66) a tonne before closing down 0.9 percent at 842 yuan a tonne. For the whole week, iron ore fell 8.2%.
Spot iron ore with 62% Fe content in China fell 1 USD to 166 USD/ton on August 12, according to consulting firm SteelHome.
Bar steel in Shanghai fell 0.9% to 5,482 CNY/ton at the close, down 5.6% for the whole week. Hot rolled coil fell 1.4% to 5,765 CNY/ton, down 6.5% this week. Stainless steel in Shanghai fell 1.6% to 18,240 CNY/ton.
Japanese rubber increased for the 3rd week in a row
Japanese rubber prices rose in the last session of the week due to increased supply concerns after the number of Covid-19 infections in the main producing countries in Southeast Asia increased. Thailand, the world’s largest rubber producer, has a record number of infections for a second day.
Rubber for January delivery in January 2022 on the Osaka exchange closed up 2 JPY or 0.9% to 22.6 JPY/kg. For the whole week, prices increased by 1.2%. Rubber for January delivery in January 2022 at the Shanghai futures exchange increased by 60 CNY to 14,755 CNY ($2,276)/ton.
Rubber inventories in Shanghai increased by 2.9% from the previous week.
Raw sugar up 2%
Raw sugar for October delivery closed up 0.41 US cents or 2.1% to 19.95 US cents/lb, at one session the price hit 20.1 US cents/lb, the highest since February/February. 2017.
Sugar production in Brazil’s south-central region for the 2021/22 season is forecast to fall to 32.5 million tonnes from a June forecast of 34.1 million tonnes due to drought and frost.
October white sugar futures rose $15, or 3.2%, to $491.1 a tonne.
Coffee prices fall
Arabica coffee for December delivery closed down 3.85 US cents or 2% at $1.8575/lb. Prices hit a seven-year high at the end of July.
Arabica coffee prices are underpinned by the prospect of falling next crop in Brazil after being damaged by frost. There are still conflicting estimates of how much output has been damaged by the Brazilian frost, which has left the market volatile.
Robusta coffee for November term closed down $18, or 1%, at $1,836 a tonne.
Wheat rises to 8.5-year high, soybeans up, corn down
U.S. wheat prices rose to an 8.5-year high and European wheat continued to rise, after a U.S. government report sharply reduced world stocks fueled supply worries.
Soybeans rose on fears of a tight global vegetable oil supply, but corn prices fell.
CBOT September wheat futures closed up 8-3/4 US cents at 7.62-1/4 USD/bushel, after touching 7.74-3/4 USD/bushel, the highest price since February. /two thousand and thirteen.
CBOT November soybean futures rose 24 US cents to $13.65 per bushel, December corn futures fell a quarter US cent to $5.73 per bushel.
Prices of some key items on the morning of August 14:
