Robusta coffee in Southeast Asia continues to be difficult to buy due to unsatisfactory prices and farmers expect prices to improve soon…
At the end of the first trading session of the week, Robusta coffee prices on ICE Europe – London increased for the third consecutive session. The March delivery term increased by 90 USD, to 2,885 USD/ton and the May delivery term increased by 63 USD, to 2,790 USD/ton, strong increases. Trading volume is above average.
In contrast, Arabica coffee prices on the ICE US – New York floor extended their falling streak to the fourth session. March delivery futures decreased another 1.40 cents, to 181.40 cents/lb and May delivery futures decreased another 1.45 cents, to 179.65 cents/lb, significant decreases. Trading volume is very high above average.
The price of green coffee in the Central Highlands provinces increased by 1,100 – 1,200 VND, fluctuating in the range of 68,700 – 69,700 VND/kg. Fresh coffee prices trade around 15,500 VND/kg.
Coffee futures prices continue to maintain mixed trends, decreasing in New York and increasing in London as these markets have more supporting basic information. The Brazilian weather forecast had good rain at the end of the week, causing Arabica coffee prices to continue to decline. Although there was a positive impact from London at the end of the session, the market still could not maintain the green color. This is because coffee exports reported from the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex) in the recent period increased by more than 33%. Official data on December exports will be published by Cecafé next week.
The National Coffee Federation (FNC) in Colombia reported that coffee production in December increased by 23.55% over the same period last year, equivalent to an increase of 239,000 bags to 1,220,000 bags. Therefore, cumulative output in the first three months of the current coffee year 2023/2024 has increased by 730,000 bags, or an increase of 24.92% over the same period of the previous coffee year, reaching a total of 3,659,000 bags. bag. The reason for this improvement in output is because weather conditions have returned to normal after more than two and a half years Colombia experienced too much rain caused by the La Niña weather phenomenon. It is promised that the Mitica harvest in mid-2024 will be a bumper crop due to El Nino weather bringing drier conditions.
However, FNC – Colombia also reported that coffee exports in December decreased by 30,000 bags, or 2.91% over the same period last year, to only 1,060,000 bags. Therefore, cumulative coffee exports in the first three months of the current 2023/2024 crop year have decreased by 175,000 bags, or a decrease of 5.40% compared to the same period in the previous coffee crop year, reaching a total of only 3,063. 000 bags. The reason for the decline in exports is said to be due to the Colombian Peso, which has increased in price by 10.89% since the beginning of the 2023/2024 coffee season. Traditionally, a stronger peso discourages exports from Colombia, making coffee farmers hesitant to sell to the domestic market.
According to observers, Robusta coffee prices in London have skyrocketed because Vietnamese farmers expect higher prices so they are still holding on to their goods even though the Robusta coffee harvest is at the end of the season. At that time, the congestion of the international maritime route from Europe to Asia could cause sea freight rates to skyrocket due to the need to go around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa and the fact that Vietnamese farmers do not want to sell their goods at low prices after 3 years. The previous decline session caused speculation on the London floor to push spot prices to a record high (delivery in January 2024 increased by 137 USD to 3,140 USD/ton).
English (giacaphe.com)
