Source: www.3tres3.com
The number of pigs slaughtered in 2024 is expected to reach 16.85 million, a slight increase compared to 2023 (16.74 million). The higher starting pig herd is a result of slaughter delays due to the intense summer heat in 2023. Strong pork demand will support pork prices and encourage pig producers to maintain production levels. export. Pig production in 2024 will increase due to the expected growth in the number of sows from 2023.
The pig population at the end of 2024 will be unchanged compared to the same period last year with mild climate conditions and no disease outbreaks. Pork production in 2023 is unchanged but there are strong fluctuations in the second half of the year. High temperatures in summer reduce appetite and pigs take longer to gain weight. Slaughter delays caused a slight shortage and spiked carcass prices in August and September. Then, mild winter weather led to rapid weight gain and rapid slaughter. recuperate.
Classical swine fever (CSF) and porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) were reported during the year but had only limited impact on production. In 2023, four reported cases of CSF resulted in a total of 13,400 pigs being culled. Two of the cases occurred in Saga Prefecture on Kyushu island, home to 31% of Japan’s total pig herd. The prefectural government and local pig producers have agreed to vaccinate healthy pigs raised on Kyushu island with CSF vaccine to prevent further outbreaks in the largest pork-producing region.
Despite the impact of inflation on consumers, Japan’s pork consumption in 2024 is expected to be stable compared to 2023 due to strong demand in the retail as well as food service sectors. driven by strong growth in tourism post-COVID. Pork has become the main source of animal protein in the Japanese diet, especially when cooking at home. Pork prices are less volatile and less affected by inflation, but more and more consumers prefer lower priced cuts of pork.
Japan’s pork imports in 2024 are expected to increase by only 1% to meet the shortfall in domestic supply. Continued fluctuations in foreign exchange rates and supply chains will likely push traders to limit imports, focusing only on what is needed to meet current demand. Higher transport and import costs have reduced Japan’s pork imports by 6% in 2023. A weak yen against the dollar and euro is a factor, but international tensions in the Red Sea also increases import costs when shipping routes through this area no longer exist. Ships from Europe to Japan had to change shipping routes, affecting about 20% of imported pork, mainly frozen pork and pork products. In addition, Japan continues to temporarily suspend imports from some European countries such as Germany and Italy due to the African swine fever (ASF) outbreak. To stabilize supply, importers have reduced inventories by 7% from 2022.
