Source: tapchicaosu.vn
Table of Contents
Rubber consumption increased by 4-5%
ANRPC forecasts, the global rubber consumption in 2022 will increase by 4-5% compared to 2021. In addition to the supply shortage, the rising oil price also leads to an increase in the price of synthetic rubber, because crude oil is the raw material. input materials for the production of synthetic rubber. Therefore, the prospect of the global rubber industry in 2022 will be very bright, the selling price will continue to keep at a high level.
Along with the rubber import demand of major markets such as the European Union (EU), China, the US, and India, it is forecasted that the uptrend will continue thanks to the gradual recovery of the economy in these markets. is an optimistic signal for Vietnam’s rubber exports. The positive signs in the market are clearly shown in the demand from the two largest markets of Vietnamese rubber, China and India.
China is the largest market of Vietnamese rubber in 2021 with the volume and value of exports to this country in 2021 at 1.4 million tons and 2.3 billion USD. Information from the Ministry of Industry and Trade shows that China is in need of consuming about 500,000 tons of natural rubber per month.
In which, only about 115,000 tons can be met from domestic supply. Thus, each month, this country lacks about 385,000 tons of natural rubber. Therefore, China imported 1.7 million tons to make up for the shortfall in the last 5 months of 2021 and is forecast to have to import an additional 2 million tons to meet demand in the period from January 2022 to January 2020. April 2022.
According to a forecast by the Rubber Directorate of India, in 2022, the country’s natural rubber output will only reach 800,000 tons while the consumption demand will reach 1,240,000 tons. Thus, India needs to import 440,000 tons of rubber. Due to the high increase in India’s rubber import demand, in 2021, Vietnam has exported 119,000 tons of rubber to India, worth $212 million, increased to 93.9% in volume and 138.1% in value.
Many promising signals
Previously, despite being greatly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, 2021 is still a successful year for Vietnam’s rubber exports when setting two new records in both volume and value. In 2021, our country exported 1.955 million tons of rubber, this is the highest volume of rubber exported in a year in the history of Vietnam’s rubber industry. In terms of value, in the past year, rubber exports reached 3.278 billion USD, the highest ever. With this export turnover, 2021 is also the year that rubber exports return to the USD 3 billion mark after 10 years.
As a result, the price of rubber on the world market in general and the export price of Vietnam’s rubber in particular has increased higher than before. The average export price of Vietnam’s rubber in 2021 is at $1,677/ton, up 23% compared to 2020. In the first month of this year, export rubber prices remained high. Specifically, in January, rubber exports reached 192,724 tons, worth more than 331 million USD. Calculated, the average export price of rubber in January was 1,718 USD/ton. The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) forecasts that in the short term, rubber prices will likely continue to increase because rubber trees enter the exploitation period, limited supply and increased demand after the holiday. bronze. At the International Rubber Industry Conference in Vietnam, taking place at the end of 2021, Mr. Dar Wong, Investment Director of ALA Consulting Company, said that in the first quarter of 2022, there is a huge possibility that the market will recovery and rubber prices on the world market will be around 2,000–2,100 USD/ton. In general, in the whole year of 2022, rubber prices will increase quite strongly, have many supports and will be in the range of 2.1-3.8 USD/kg.
According to ANRPC, through preliminary statistics, in 2021, the world’s natural rubber output will reach just over 13.8 million tons, while the demand is more than 14 million tons. The deficit amounted to about 200 thousand tons. ANRPC forecasts that the global rubber supply will continue to fall short of the demand and will increase the shortfall in the following years until 2028, possibly even until 2031 due to the gap between supply and demand. greater.
This forecast has been made on the basis of assessing the planting trend and the possibility of expanding the area of mature rubber trees in rubber producing countries. Thus, with the above forecast, the global natural rubber industry has now come out of the period of prolonged excess supply.
According to VRG Business Market Department, the weather situation in natural rubber exploitation areas such as Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and leaf fall in Thailand and India, has forced speculators to change changed his mind and returned to the commodity market earlier than expected.
