Pepper prices are maintaining at a high level and are expected to continue to increase as demand in the world market remains high, while supply is limited. The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA) forecasts that Vietnam’s pepper exports this year will reach over 1 billion USD, bringing pepper back to the billion-dollar industry group.
According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association, by July 30, Vietnam had exported 164,357 tons of pepper of all kinds; of which black pepper reached 145,330 tons, white pepper reached 19,027 tons. Total export turnover reached 764.2 million USD. With the results achieved, in the next 5 months, pepper can completely return to the billion-dollar path.
Compared to the same period in 2023, lake exports decreased by 2.2%, however export turnover increased by 40.8%. The average export price of black pepper in 7 months reached 4,568 USD/ton, white pepper reached 6,195 USD/ton, up 32.7% and 25% respectively compared to the same period last year.
The United States is the largest pepper export market. Next is the German market with an increase of 97.3%; UAE increased by 39.2%; India increased by 39.7%; China ranked 4th but decreased by 84.6% over the same period.
According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association, the reason why Vietnam’s pepper exports have increased is due to the scarcity of pepper supply in the world market.
Brazil is currently the second largest producer and exporter of black pepper in the world after Vietnam, accounting for 17-18% of total global supply. Therefore, the continuous crop failure in Brazil will cause a global spillover effect, which is expected to push global pepper prices up in the last months of 2024 when pepper supply from other large producing countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia… also all declined significantly.
Currently, pepper supply is limited globally due to the impact of El Nino. In the long term, in the next 3-5 years, the amount of pepper produced cannot meet the world’s consumer demand.
In July, the domestic pepper price reached 150,000 VND/kg, an increase of 82.9% compared to January and an increase of 120.6% compared to the same period in 2023. On average, the price of black pepper in 7 months increased by 66.5% compared to the same period in 2023. with the same period in 2023.
According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association, pepper prices have increased in the past 3 months because harvest output decreased in Vietnam and Brazil, causing supply shortages. The pepper market is facing many difficulties and challenges. Prices will continue to fluctuate in the near future.
According to Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh, Vice Chairman of Chu Se Pepper Association (Gia Lai), producers need to realize that a new price increase cycle is now beginning. This price increase cycle lasts about 10 years.
The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association said that the association’s survey to assess the current status of the three Central Highlands provinces in early July showed that farmers’ maintenance and production of pepper is increasingly facing competition. Painted by durian and coffee trees. New planting area is recorded but not much, mainly intercropped with pepper and coffee.
The impact of El Nino climate change at the beginning of the year continued to impact the production and maintenance of pepper gardens of farmers. Next is the La Nina phenomenon, making farmers’ psychology even more disturbed, especially at the present time durian and coffee prices are high so they are still not attractive enough for farmers to replant their ponds. massively spent.
Through a survey in key pepper growing regions of Vietnam including 3 Central Highlands provinces (Gia Lai, Dak Lak, Dak Nong) and 3 Southeast provinces (Binh Phuoc, Dong Nai and Ba Ria Vung Tau), Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh said that the pepper growing area has decreased by up to 50% compared to the peak period.
From this reality, according to Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh, this price increase cycle in the context of supply will be even lower than previous price increase cycles.
Because if farmers do not plant or replant now, there will be no additional supply for the next 4 years, while there will still be losses due to unusual weather and climate change. Not to mention the areas that were intercropped with pepper and durian trees (waiting for durian trees to grow), will now have to make room for durian trees. Thus, 4 years later, without additional sources, pepper prices will certainly continue to increase, Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh shared.
However, according to VPSA, increasingly fierce competition from other crops such as durian and coffee, along with negative effects from climate change, are the main reasons for price increases. Pepper becomes unpredictable. Next crop’s output may be equivalent or slightly increase compared to 2024.
According to Bich Hong (Misinform)
