Source: Vietnambiz.vn
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Rubber exports skyrocketed in volume and value
Data from the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) shows that in the first three months of 2021, rubber exports will reach about 435,000 tons, worth $722 million, up 89.7% in volume and 116.6 percent. in value over the same period in 2020.
Particularly in March 2021, Vietnam’s rubber exports reached about 140,000 tons, worth 243 million USD, up 33.6% in volume and 40.3% in value compared to February 2021.
Compared to the same period last year, rubber exports in March increased by 130.7% in volume and 178.5% in value.
Not only that, export prices also recorded positive signs. Typically, the average selling price of rubber in the first two months of the year of Dong Phu Rubber Company (Code: DPR) reached 46 million VND/ton, up 25.5% over the same period last year, according to the Company’s report. Securities Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BSC).
Tay Ninh Rubber Company (Code: TRC) recorded an average selling price of 46.3 million VND/ton, up 35% compared to the average in 2020.
According to the latest data of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the average rubber price in March increased by 5% compared to February 2021 but increased by 20.7% compared to March 2020, to 1,736 USD/ton.
What is the cause?
Sharing with the writer, Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Rubber and Plastic Association, said: “After the epidemic, the demand in the markets gradually recovered, the demand for rubber from manufacturers increased. increase, which is the reason why rubber exports in the first quarter increased better than last year”.
According to Processing and market development of agricultural products, rubber prices increased due to seasonal factors along with China’s increase in purchasing again to serve the strong growth of the auto industry in China and demand Rubber gloves are still maintained, pushing up the price of rubber.
Meanwhile, China’s domestic rubber supply has dropped sharply as rubber plantations are strongly affected by drought and floods in 2020.
Therefore, this can be seen as part of the reason why China has stepped up buying rubber from Vietnam in the past time with an import volume of over 217,400 tons, worth nearly US$342 million, up 99% in volume. 118% increase in value.
Data from the General Department of Customs also shows that most of the types of rubber Vietnam exported to the market of 1.4 billion people have increased sharply in both volume and value compared to the same period in 2020.
In particular, export of Latex rubber increased by 1,959.9% in volume and 2,459.4% in value; synthetic rubber increased by 17.350% in volume and 6,292% in price.
According to Mr. Quoc Anh: “The price increase this time is not the peak compared to the previous times. But this time it may be a new bullish cycle, although I don’t know how long it will last, it is also quite high.” .
One of the important reasons for the high price of rubber is the lack of latex output compared to demand.
According to data from the Association of Natural Rubber Exporting Countries, the world natural rubber output in February 2021 is estimated at 897,000 tons, down 12.4% compared to February 2020. Meanwhile, the global consumption of natural rubber in February 2021 is estimated at 1.1 million tons, up 47.5% compared to February 2020.
Share with Vietnamese cultureMr. Le Van Vui, General Director of Binh Long Rubber One Member Limited Liability Company, said that currently, the amount of rubber latex in Vietnam is scarce. Therefore, rubber prices are trending up. Accordingly, the average price of rubber this year may be at 35 million VND/ton, higher than the initial estimate of 33 million VND/ton.
In addition, the fact that countries have partly controlled the COVID-19 epidemic, plus the implementation of vaccination in many countries, has created confidence for production recovery. Thanks to that, the disruptions in the supply chain were overcome, and the price of rubber recovered from there.
Many positive forecasts about rubber prices in 2021
The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) believes that in the coming time, rubber prices may continue to increase due to the strong recovery of the global economy after solid economic data from China and growth prospects from the assessment of the Ministry of Industry and Trade. International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The IMF raised its global growth forecast to 6% in 2021, from 5.5% previously due to a better outlook for the US economy following the $1.9 trillion bailout.
Meanwhile, supply may be disrupted due to weather factors, output in major exporting countries in the world such as Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia may decrease when winter begins, trees are tall. deciduous latex and low latex yield. As a result, the selling price of rubber is expected to continue to increase.
Besides, China’s tire exports are forecasted to remain at a relatively good level in the short term when the world epidemic subsides.
Thai rubber producer Sri Trang (SET) also forecast that global natural rubber demand in 2021 will be at 13.4 million tons, up 7% compared to 2020, largely due to increased revenue from China. bought back to serve the rapidly recovering auto industry.
According to the International Rubber Research Organization (IRSG), the world demand for natural rubber in 2021 will recover thanks to the growth of the commercial vehicle segment, mainly thanks to the markets of emerging countries.
These signals forecast a positive year outlook for rubber businesses, including Vietnam. However, many people think that there are still many challenges in 2021 when the export situation is limited in the context of the market lacking containers for transportation.
Besides, in the world, although many countries have implemented vaccination, the epidemic situation has returned with a new strain, the speed of super-infection has put pressure on manufacturing industries, including automobiles, so the The rubber export market still faces many difficulties in 2021.
In addition, according to the Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Rubber and Plastic Association, although the increase in rubber prices brings great export value to the industry in general, in fact, many finished rubber enterprises are facing the problem. difficult.
“With the increase in the price of rubber and the price of rubber materials, which has also increased dramatically since the beginning of the year, with an increase of 30-60%, many manufacturers and exporters face difficulties because the selling price cannot increase. .
Due to the low demand during the epidemic, manufacturers reduced their capacity, but after the epidemic became more stable, the production situation of all industries gradually returned, but these manufacturers have not yet recovered. “, Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh shared.
