According to the Center for Industry and Trade Information (Ministry of Industry and Trade), the US Department of Agriculture's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Assessment Division (WASDE) has just made a forecast, in the crop year 2020/2021, Global rice acreage will increase by 1.5% compared to the previous crop and reach 163 million hectares. The area is only 0.3 million ha lower than the historic high recorded in 2016/2017.
With the above area, plus the increase in average productivity worldwide, the global rice production in 2020/2021 is expected to reach a record of 502 million tons, an increase of nearly 2% compared to the previous forecast and increased by about 3.8 million tons from the previous crop.
The countries that are forecasted by WASDE to significantly increase their rice area are Myanmar, China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Thailand and the United States. In contrast, some countries, such as Brazil and the Philippines, are forecast to continue to decline in size.
With the forecast to increase the area, China, Thailand and the US will have the largest increase in production in the crop year 2020/2021. Australia, Myanmar, Nigeria, Sri Lanka and Pakistan will also increase production. India is likely to maintain production at a record high this year. And production in Brazil and the Philippines is forecast to decline.
Global rice consumption and loss in the 2020/2021 crop is forecast to reach a record 498.1 million tons, up nearly 2% from the previous year.
In particular, China and India will account for most of the expected increase. Rice consumption in China increased mainly from the industrial sector. Consumption and losses of rice in Bangladesh, Egypt, Philippines, Thailand, USA and Vietnam are forecast to increase.
With global rice production forecast to be 3.8 million tons higher than the previous crop, global rice stocks for the 2020/2021 crop are forecast to increase 2% to a record 148.2 million tons. This is the 14th year that global rice stocks have increased continuously.
In particular, rice storage / storage at the end of the 2020/2021 crop of China is forecast to reach a record 117 million tons, India is also a record high of 38 million tons. The two countries will account for 64% and 21% of the total rice stockpile / reserve globally.
US rice stocks will also increase by 37% to 1.3 million tons. Global rice use / storage ratio at the end of the 2020/2021 crop is forecast at 37%, slightly higher than the 36.8% in the previous crop, but still below the record level of 37.3. % of 2000/2001.
Global rice trade in 2021 is forecast to reach 45.2 million tons, an increase of more than 5% compared to 2020, but still lower than nearly 3 million tons of a record 48.1 million tons in 2017.
Thailand is forecasted, with an increase of 1.5 million tons of rice exports in 2021, will account for the largest share of total rice export growth next year. Rice exports of Vietnam, Australia, Cambodia and China are also expected to increase in 2021.
Regarding imports, the Philippines is expected to increase imports by 800,000 tons in 2021. Markets such as Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are forecast to increase imports by 200,000 tons of rice each. Increasing imports in these markets will compensate for the declining imports in China, Indonesia and South Korea.
Regarding global rice trade in 2020, according to WASDE's forecast, it will increase by 0.1 million tons to 42.9 million tons, but still 1% lower than the previous year. Regarding exports in 2020, Vietnam is forecast to increase by 0.2 million tons, Cambodia by 0.3 million tons …, while China will decrease by 0.3 million tons.
According to Nongnghiep.vn
