Global coffee supply becomes redundant

Marex expects the global balance to shift from a shortage of 4.3 million bags (60 kg / bag) in the current crop to a surplus of 2 million bags in the 2020/21 crop (starting from October to September of the year. after).

Steve Pollard, coffee analyst at Marex Spectron, said that “total consumption is expected to decline during the long” follow-up and adaptation “period, until the vaccine is found.”

But the broker increased its estimate for the current crop-year deficit ending in September this year to 4.3 million bags from 3.2 million bags forecast in February due to initial stockpiles of Households and roasters have boosted demand.

They estimate that around 95% of the cafe market is closed globally, that segment accounts for about 20% to 25% of consumption.

Marex anticipates that the demand for clean arabica will be hardest hit, as it is favored by high-end coffee shops around the world. The demand for robusta coffee, which is widely used in instant coffee, is a well-maintained household staple.

Source: VITIC / Reuters