Global coffee consumption is likely to grow by 1-2% per year until the end of the decade, or 25 million 60kg bags over the next eight years, according to the Executive Director of the International Coffee Organization (ICO) Vanusia. Nogueira.
Vanusia Nogueira’s forecast was made at the 2022 Vietnam International Coffee Industry Conference organized by the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) in Hanoi on December 11th.
“For now, we are more cautious with a short-term forecast”, said Ms. Nogueira, referring to all the events facing the world, including high inflation in Europe.
According to her, the ICO’s previous forecast that global coffee consumption will increase by an average of 3.3% per year for the next four to five years is too “optimistic”.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Nogueira said that the global coffee industry will achieve a balance of supply and demand in the next 2-3 years to get out of the current supply shortage.
She said that the world needs more Arabica and Robusta coffee, but the prospect of increasing production and demand for Robusta coffee will be higher. Traditional arabica coffee producers are trying to switch to robusta as the earth warms. Meanwhile, roasters are also trying to add cheaper robusta coffee to their coffee blends.
“If you use a higher quality robusta, consumers won’t feel a big difference in the blend.,” said Nogueira.
According to her, many markets are looking for premium robusta coffee. In that context, Vietnam has researched and expanded to produce high-quality robusta coffee with “pretty good” results.
The International Coffee Organization chief executive said he was surprised to taste three different cups of “very good” coffee the day before with a group of international guests visiting a coffee shop owned by the Company. Vinh Hiep Co., Ltd., the second largest coffee exporter in Vietnam.
The International Coffee Organization does not think that Vietnam’s dominant position in global coffee exports will be affected when Brazil increases robusta coffee production. The reason is that Brazil’s additional robusta production is to supply the South American country’s instant coffee industry. The head of this organization advised coffee growing countries to promote domestic consumption to get better prices and benefit the economy.
The US Department of Agriculture forecasts that Brazil’s robusta production will increase by 5% in 2022, to the highest level in history. In July, Bloomberg quoted Fernando Maximiliano, an analyst at StoneX Financial in Sao Paulo, Brazil, as saying that Brazil has plenty of room to increase robusta production by converting grasslands into robusta coffee farms. .
Robusta coffee is widely used to produce instant coffee for instant coffee brands such as Nestle’s Nescafe or to be added to espresso. Robusta coffee was once seen as a lower-quality alternative to higher-end arabica coffees, favored by coffee chains like Starbucks.
However, robusta is growing in popularity, especially because it’s easy to grow, easy to prepare, and can help improve flavor. Consumers globally are still drinking more arabica-based beverages. In the context of high inflation, more and more people are buying Robusta coffee with lower prices and starting to have a different view even though this coffee has a more bitter taste.
Also at the Vietnam Coffee Industry International Conference, Mr. Do Ha Nam, Vice President of Vicofa, said that domestic coffee consumption will increase by 5-10% in the coming years, from the current 300,000 tons, including 170,000 tons are used to produce instant coffee.
Mr. Nam, currently Chairman of Intimex Group, Vietnam’s largest coffee exporter, forecasts that Vietnam’s coffee exports will decline in the business year 2022-2023 due to lower output and inventories from the previous year. the previous service turned insignificant.
