Source: thoibaotaichinhvietnam.vn
The supply is more stable thanks to enhancing domestic production capacity
According to statistics of the General Department of Customs, in 2024 the country exported nearly 1.73 million tons of fertilizer of all kinds, equivalent to over 709.91 million USD, the average price of 411.1 USD/ton, increasing 11 , 7% in volume, up 9.4% in turnover. In terms of market, Asian countries are increasing sharply on this import of Vietnam with Cambodia, South Korea and the Philippines, which emerged as the three most imported countries in 2024.
Continuing the positive results of 2024, experts predicted that Vietnam’s fertilizer market in 2025 had many prospects for supply and demand and prices.
Assessing the prospect of supply and demand of fertilizer market, researcher Tran Thi Hue – Institute of Economic – Finance (Financial Academy) said that in 2025, Vietnam’s fertilizer market was expected to maintain stability The supply of domestic production capacity is increasingly improved.
In 2024, the whole country exported nearly 1.73 million tons of fertilizers of all kinds. Photo: TL
“Large factories such as Phu My Fertilizer, Ca Mau and Dap Dinh Vu Dam Dap Dap Dap Dap Dap Dap Dap Dap Dap Dap Dap Dap Dap and Dap Dinh Vu have implemented projects expanding capacity, technology upgrades, and applying international standards to optimize output and quality. Products ” – Ms. Tran Thi Hue cited. In addition, the stability in the supply chain and strong export capacity will continue to ensure the supply to meet domestic demand. Free trade agreements (FTAs) such as RCEP and EVFTA continue to create favorable conditions for fertilizer imports from countries with competitive advantages of price such as Russia, China and Indonesia. This not only helps to supplement the supply but also limits the situation of sudden price increase due to local scarcity.
| The World Fertilizer Association forecasts that the demand for urea fertilizer increases 6% in the period of 2024 – 2028. Besides, the export of fertilizer is forecast to recover, especially in traditional markets such as Cambodia, Korea. At the same time, Vietnam is also expanding the market to Europe, which has higher product quality standards. |
Not only that, the increasing demand thanks to the expansion of farming area and agricultural technology is expected to promote fertilizer demand.
In addition to opportunities, Vietnam’s fertilizer market in 2025 also faced some challenges from global trends and weather fluctuations.
Accordingly, the trend of organic agriculture in developed countries can reduce the demand for global chemical fertilizers. In addition, extreme weather phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña can affect agricultural production, thereby affecting fertilizer demand, especially in the short term.
“According to experts, the Vietnam Fertilizer Market in 2025 is likely to achieve a better balance of supply and demand than in 2024. The total supply is expected to reach about 11.5 – 12 million tons, while the need Consumption is estimated at 10 – 10.5 million tons. This trend reflects the improvement in the management of supply and efficiency of using fertilizer in Vietnam ” – Ms. Hue emphasized.
The forecast price increased slightly by 3-5%
Commenting on the trend of fertilizer price in 2025, experts say that fertilizer prices will increase globally about 3-5%, capable of affecting domestic prices, especially in dependent areas. Many in imported fertilizers.
Ms. Tran Thi Hue added that fertilizer prices on the Vietnamese market in 2025 are expected to be more stable than in 2024, thanks to the consolidated domestic supply and production support policies.
Fertilizer price in 2025 increased by 3-5%. Photo: TL
However, prices will still be influenced by important international factors. The first is the fluctuation of input materials such as natural gas prices, sulfur, and ammonia – the main materials for fertilizer production are forecast to fluctuate according to the global energy market trend. If the energy price increases, fertilizer production costs will also increase, directly impacting the retail price.
Demand from large export markets, countries such as India, Pakistan and Brazil continues to play an important role in orienting fertilizer prices. If the demand increases sharply in these markets, Vietnam may have the pressure of competition for supply, leading to domestic prices.
The exchange rate and cost of logistics, VND exchange rate compared to USD and other strong currencies, along with international shipping costs, will continue to be an important factor affecting import prices and exports.
“Despite being influenced by external factors, domestic fertilizer prices are expected to increase slightly, in about 3-5% compared to the average in 2024. This increase is supported by policies. Price stability, ensuring the competitiveness of the market and stability of domestic supply ” – Ms. Hue analyzed.
Recently, Rong Viet Securities Company also forecasted that the gross profit margin of the fertilizer industry in 2025 increased thanks to the price of oil and input gas faster than the output selling price of domestic fertilizer./.
| From July 1, 2025, the 5% value -added fertilizer item will bring some benefits for domestic fertilizer businesses such as: Refund of input materials, helping to reduce production costs, expand gross profit margin, contribute to profit growth; The 5% tax rate may reduce the price competition between domestic and imported goods. |
