Source: Thesaigontimes.vn
The FAO World Food Outlook report, released on June 13, said that with rice production expected to increase by 0.6% to 478.9 million tonnes in 2024-2025, Asia will account for the majority of the increase in global rice production.
High rice prices and government support are expected to encourage farmers to expand rice acreage in the new season, while rice yields in Asia could improve as the dry conditions of El Niño wane.
“In Asia, Bangladesh, India and the Philippines are all expected to post record harvests, supported by improved growing conditions and strong government support. Expansion of rice areas to take advantage of attractive prices is also expected to boost rice production in Cambodia, Nepal and Pakistan,” the report said.
With better yields, the FAO expects China’s rice area to expand in the new season after three years of decline. The country’s rice output is expected to rise 0.6 percent to 142.3 million tonnes in the new season. Production is also expected to recover in Iraq, Iran and Türkiye.
Elsewhere in the region, the outlook is less positive. In Thailand, for example, the outlook for rice production growth is limited as planting may be delayed due to early-season drought conditions and uncertainties surrounding reforms to government support programs.
FAO forecasts that rice production in the new season will decline in the Republic of Korea, Myanmar, Malaysia, Timor-Leste, Vietnam and Indonesia. For Vietnam, rice production will reach 27.8 million tons in 2024-25, down 1.4% from the previous season.
Africa is set for a fourth consecutive year of expanding rice production, with output expected to total 28.4 million tonnes in 2024-25, up 4% from the previous season and marking a record high.
International rice trade fell for the second consecutive year to 51.4 million tonnes this year, the lowest in four years. On the import side, African countries are expected to reduce their purchases in the new season. Asian rice imports are likely to remain relatively strong. Import demand is expected to increase in other regions.
On the export front, India has contributed to the majority of the decline in global rice trade due to the current restrictions on exports of non-basmati white rice and broken rice. However, with exports expected to reach nearly 15.4 million tonnes in 2024, India remains the largest supplier of rice to the world market.
For Southeast Asian rice exporters, Vietnam’s outlook is downgraded from 2023 and Myanmar is “below potential,” FAO said. Meanwhile, Thailand’s rice exports are likely to remain close to 2023’s 8.6 million tonnes.
For Cambodia, the export outlook will be driven by strong cross-border demand from Vietnam for domestic consumption and re-exports. Cambodia’s rice output will rise 1.8 percent to 7.9 million tonnes this year, making it the world’s 10th-largest rice producer after surpassing Brazil and Japan last year.
China is forecast to be the largest rice producer this crop year, followed by India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, the Philippines and Pakistan.
Global rice utilization in the new season is expected to rise to 531.4 million tonnes, with ample supplies fueling growth in food use. However, due to record production, global rice stocks in 2024-25 are expected to increase by 2.7% to an all-time high of 205.1 million tonnes. Unlike previous seasons, however, stocks will be less concentrated and will increase in both exporting and importing countries.
FAO noted that international rice prices have softened in recent months but remain high. In April, the FAO Global Rice Price Index averaged 137.3 points, down 2.7% from the end of 2023 but 7.5% higher than the end of 2022.
