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| Making good use of EVFTA to boost exports in the second half, Vietnam still has an opportunity to offset export losses in the first half. Photo: Tuan Anh |
3 staples are difficult
According to the latest figures from the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Planning and Investment), in the first 6 months, total import and export turnover of goods reached 238.4 billion USD, down 2.1% compared to the same period last year. . In particular, exports reached 121.2 billion USD, down 1.1%; Imports reached 117.2 billion USD, down 3%. In the first 6 months, Vietnam saw a trade surplus of 4 billion USD.
Particularly in terms of export, in the past 6 months, the domestic economic sector reached US $ 41.38 billion, up 11.7%, accounting for 34.1% of total export turnover; FDI sector (including crude oil) reached 79.83 billion USD, down 6.7%, accounting for 65.9%.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade assessed that the fact that domestic enterprises still kept double-digit growth in the context of declining export turnover of FDI enterprises is considered a bright spot of commodity export activities from the beginning of the year until now.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade analyzed that the remarkable point in the “picture” of exporting in the first months of this year was the export decrease of all three important groups of industries. Specifically, in the first 5 months of the year, the group of processed industrial goods had the lowest decrease of 1.2% compared to the same period in 2019; followed by agriculture and aquatic products with a decrease of 4.7% and mineral fuels with the highest decrease of 31.3%. “Thus, it is no longer just a slowdown anymore, affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, being cut orders by many partners, Vietnam’s exports increasingly increasingly difficult in the quarter 2/2020”, Ministry of Industry and Trade Thuong said.
| According to the General Statistics Office, for the first 6 months, import turnover is estimated at 117.17 billion USD, down 3% compared to the same period last year. In which, domestic economic sector is 51.55 billion USD, up by 0.1%; FDI sector reached 65.62 billion USD, down 5.4%. In the first 6 months of the year, there were 22 imported items valued at more than US $ 1 billion, accounting for 81.2% of total import turnover. Regarding the import market of goods in the first 6 months, China remained the largest import market. Vietnam’s turnover reached US $ 34.8 billion, down 2.2% from the same period last year; followed by the Korean market with 20.3 billion USD, down 10%; ASEAN market reached 14.2 billion USD, down 11.9%; Japan reached 9.3 billion USD, up 5.3%; The United States reached US $ 7.4 billion, up 7.2%; EU market reached 7.1 billion USD, up 8.4%. |
Typically, the story of the difficulty in the first half of the year due to Covid-19 epidemic is the case of the wood industry. After many consecutive years of maintaining an average growth rate of about 12-15% / year, in the first 5 months of this year, the export of wood and wood products only reached US $ 3.94 billion, down 2.5% compared to the same period. 2019 year period.
Talking to reporters of the Customs Newspaper, a representative of the Vietnam Association of Wood and Forest Products, up to now, more than 80% of shoppers exporting to the US market have announced to stop buying and cancel orders waiting for the situation. new. 81% of enterprises exporting to the EU market have received notice of canceling orders and extending orders. The markets of Japan, Korea and China also dropped by 60-80%.
Notably, with the complicated evolution of the disease, currently customers do not come to the factory to sample. Therefore, Vietnamese timber enterprises have not signed new orders for the 2020-2021 season. This entails many factories with the potential to close and stop operating in the near future, hundreds of thousands of workers face. Unemployment, job insecurity and social security for workers in the long run.
Currently, although Vietnam has succeeded in the fight against Covid-19, the attraction of investment and export promotion depends largely on external factors. Meanwhile, the Covid-19 epidemic in the world is still having complicated developments and seriously affecting the global economy, the recovery process will take a long time. From the above analysis, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said that in the coming months, Vietnam’s import and export will likely continue to recover, but the turnover will still decrease compared to the same period in 2019.
Expect to EVFTA
Besides difficulties, the Ministry of Industry and Trade also pointed out many factors to support exports in the second half of the year. Typically, over time, the supply chain, import and export market was interrupted by the impact of Covid-19 epidemic. But from the middle of April until now, the situation has gradually improved, European countries have gradually reopened to the economy. Many countries have launched large-scale stimulus packages, increased fiscal spending to cope with diseases, maintained essential economic activities and supported workers. In the US, as of the end of May, all 50 states in the US were partially reopened after being closed for 2 months to take limited measures to combat the Covid-19 epidemic.
In addition, Vietnam’s disease control is highly appreciated by the international community, which is considered an important motivation to attract more foreign investment into Vietnam after the pandemic. Meanwhile, transnational corporations are considering shifting investment, which is a great opportunity for Vietnam to catch this wave of investment. Recently, the Japanese Government has spent US $ 2.2 billion to support Chinese enterprises to leave China. The US government also requires American companies to relocate their factories soon in China.
The fact also shows that there is a lot of information that major technology corporations of the world plan to move production chains to Vietnam. Specifically, LG has moved the entire production line from Korea to Hai Phong. According to Nikkei, in the second quarter of 2020, Apple will produce 3-4 million AirPods in Vietnam, equivalent to nearly 1/3 of the total AirPods worldwide. Foxconn – a component supplier for Apple has located its factory in Bac Giang. Panasonic Vietnam is also preparing at the beginning of September this year to gradually take over to produce refrigerators and washing machine with large capacity from Thailand.
Notably, the EVFTA Agreement is expected to come into effect from August 2020, creating a new motivation for exporting in the last months of 2020 and the coming years. Vietnam’s approval of EVFTA at this time will provide an impetus for the domestic economic recovery after the Covid-19 pandemic. Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) analyzed: “With EVFTA Agreement, we have great strength. Countries with Agreements with the EU are few. In Asia, the EU only signed a cooperation agreement with South Korea and Singapore, however, the two countries did not have the same production structure as Vietnam. Therefore, in the long run, the Agreement will create a stable advantage for Vietnam’s exports. ”
Around the story of exporting goods in the second half of the year, trade expert Pham Tat Thang said that if the EU controlled the Covid-19 epidemic in the second quarter to start the third and fourth quarters to restore production activities, EVFTA will be the route, wide door to bring goods to the EU market. The EU market needs to import goods such as textiles, footwear, furniture, especially phones, electronic components, etc. These are all items with large and major export turnover of Vietnam. If Vietnam can make good use of the EVFTA Agreement, it can still compensate for the previous damage caused by the Covid-19 epidemic to export goods.
