On the morning of July 25, in Lam Dong, the price of coffee was purchased at 36,800 VND/kg, especially in the provinces of Dak Lak, Dak Nong, Gia Lai, Pleiku, Kon Tum coffee purchased at 37,500-37,600 VND/ kg.
At the port of Ho Chi Minh City, Robusta exports grade 2, 5% black broken rate up to 1,954 USD/ton (FOB), a difference of +55 USD/ton.
Previously, on July 23, on the London floor, the price of Robusta coffee rose to the highest level in 3.5 years. On the New York Stock Exchange, Arabica coffee prices increased by 17%, the highest level in 6.5 years.
HIGHEST COFFEE PRICE IN 3 YEARS
According to the data of the General Department of Customs, from the beginning of the year to the end of July 15, coffee exports reached 900,235 tons, worth 1.654 billion USD, down 8.63% in volume and 0.84% in volume. value compared to the same period last year. In the first 6 months of 2021, coffee exports to most key markets decreased, except for China.
In June 2021, the average export price of coffee reached 1,942 USD/ton. This is the highest level since May 2018, an increase of 3.9% compared to May 2021 and an increase of 13.9% compared to June 2020. In the first 6 months of 2021, the average export price of coffee reached 1,835 USD/ton, up 8.6% over the same period in 2020. In which, the average export price of coffee to most of the main markets. increase, excluding China.
According to the Import-Export Department – Ministry of Industry and Trade, the domestic coffee market will basically benefit thanks to the decrease in global supply. However, the opportunities for domestic enterprises are no longer as clear as before, when many importers and companies dealing in roasted and ground coffee have had experience in responding to the decrease in supply by increase reserves. In terms of demand, the Delta variant is making the Covid-19 pandemic more complicated in developing countries, and is also the largest coffee user in the world.
“The domestic coffee industry is not sure to benefit much, although world prices are likely to continue to rise higher in the near future, when most of the price increase is to offset transportation costs. Thereby showing that despite the increase in world prices, Vietnam’s coffee exports are still facing many difficulties, “said the expert.
PRICE UP INCENTRATION HAS NOT STOPED
Summarizing this week, world coffee prices recorded a strong growth week. Specifically, the price of Robusta coffee in London delivered in September 2021 increased by 132 USD/ton, delivered in November increased by 151 USD/ton; price of Arabica coffee delivered in September 2021 increased by 27.65 cents/lb, delivered in December 2021 increased by 33.85 cents/lb.
According to Reuters, the cause of the increase in coffee prices on the New York and London exchanges comes from the two largest coffee suppliers in the world, Brazil and Vietnam, which are causing the world coffee market to heat up. and the strong bullish momentum is predicted to not stop.
Accordingly, in Brazil is information about damage due to frost, the possibility of damage is up to 1-2 million bags. The sudden frost in Brazil caused such damage that the loss of output was twice as large as the amount of Arabica coffee stored in warehouses operated by ICE Futures US, the world’s main coffee futures exchange. gender. This quickly pushed world coffee prices to record highs.
A trader in Europe said the estimated loss in the next season is 3 to 5 million bags or 10% of the total production of the season – could increase but not lower.
In Vietnam, the Covid-19 epidemic raged in the main coffee growing and exporting areas, affecting the supply. Meanwhile, the inventory report on the London floor continuously showed a decrease, causing speculation to increase buying, making the price of Robusta continue to increase.
Agricultural experts said that Arabica coffee is a very sensitive plant to cold weather, as long as the frost lasts for more than 2 hours, the harvested output will be severely damaged. Information about the recent frost in Brazil showed the possibility of damage of up to 1-2 million bags, causing the New York market to worry about the lack of coffee supply from Brazil, speculators scrambling to buy amid concerns about the production of coffee beans. coffee volume declines in 2022.
According to an analyst, for a long time, the supply of Arabica coffee in the New York market has mainly come from Brazil due to low shipping rates. If the supply is in short supply, it may be necessary to make up for it from Southeast Asian countries, when the shipping rates in this region are extremely high, which will make the cost of the team very high. However, the above increase will be adjusted when the market has information that Brazil has rain again.
In the London market, the increase in Robusta coffee prices partly benefited from Arabica prices, partly because the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep key interest rates unchanged, along with economic stimulus policies in the context of the Delta variant is causing the number of new cases in Europe to increase sharply. At this time, speculators see the cash flow, not to mention the supply disruption caused by coffee producing countries in Southeast Asia.
