While the current inventory of pepper among farmers, agents, suppliers is about 40,000 – 45,000 tons, some pepper exporting enterprises have to import pepper from Indonesia to deliver to export contracts. signed before.
Vietnam Pepper Association (VPA) surveyed many farmers and businesses now have forecasted reserves of 40,000 – 45,000 tons. Some large pepper exporting enterprises also make an estimate that the number of pepper stock in farmers is still 30,000 tons, not counting at the agents and suppliers.
VPA said that in the past few years, the storage of pepper at harvest, usually lasted from January to April every year and then sold moderately, waiting for the price to increase, has brought high efficiency, creating a popular psychology. now among farmers and collection agents and pepper suppliers.
According to VPA's survey, if the export price from now onwards reaches more than $ 7,000 / ton (black pepper 500 gr / liter) will pull domestic pepper prices to over 140,000 VND / kg, then those who store pepper is likely to sell. And the export volume in 2012 could reach 110,000 – 115,000 tons, the total turnover could reach 770 – 780 million dollars.
Conversely, if the above price is not reached, most farmers continue to stock and businesses have to accept losses if sold.
Currently, domestic black pepper price in key pepper provinces in the Central Highlands and South East ranges from 123,000 to 125,000 VND / kg, 18,000-20,000 VND / kg higher than the same period in 2011.
Farmers who still have pepper still have not sold, waiting for high prices (in 2011, pepper price reached the highest level from mid-September to mid-October to reach VND 160,000 – VND 165,000 / kg) and businesses bought. Collected goods 3 – 4 months ago, now the price at the warehouse is quite high, if the sale price will be loss.
Domestic pepper price market has been quite volatile, trading progress is very quiet. Pepper exporters rated the price as “domestic pepper is quite high, difficult to buy”, so a number of businesses have to buy Indonesian pepper to re-export.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the export of pepper in the first 7 months of this year was 80 thousand tons, with a turnover of US $ 546 million, down 3.2% in volume over the same period last year but the value still increased by 20.3%. The average export price of pepper in the first 6 months reached $ 6,814 / ton, up 26.4% over the same period last year.
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