The Reais – Brazil currency continues to decline, supporting Brazilians to sell coffee for export, while speculation that Vietnam’s Robusta output in the 2023/2024 crop year may decrease by another 2-3% has supported the London market to maintain. rising momentum…
At the end of the first trading session of the week, Robusta coffee prices on ICE Europe – London continued the upward trend. The May delivery term increased by 35 USD, to 3,343 USD/ton and the July delivery term increased by 34 USD, to 3,245 USD/ton, quite good increases. Trading volume remains at an average level.
On the contrary, the price of Arabica coffee on the ICE US – New York floor continued its downward trend. May delivery futures decreased another 1.20 cents, to 181.75 cents/lb and July delivery futures decreased another 1.05 cents, to 180.60 cents/lb, slight decreases. Trading volume is quite above average.
The price of green coffee in the Central Highlands provinces increased by 900 – 1,000 VND, fluctuating in the range of 93,000 – 94,000 VND/kg.
Coffee prices on the two coffee derivatives floors continue to fluctuate in opposite directions. Meanwhile, Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor continue to decline due to expectations related to this year’s upcoming Brazilian crop and reported data shows that ICE inventories are being replenished very actively. The main reason is said to be optimism about Brazilian coffee output in the new crop year, despite speculation that output will not exceed expectations raised by traders in the domestic market when the flowering season rotates. around 70 million bags, with some negative impacts due to extreme heat waves that occurred last year.
On the contrary, Robusta coffee prices still maintain an upward trend due to concerns about global supply shortages still weighing on the consumer market, while international traders speculate on Vietnam’s Robusta coffee output this year. The 2023/2024 crop may decrease by another 2-3%, which has created a supportive market sentiment until Brazil begins harvesting the new Conilon crop this year.
Data reported by ICE – Europe yesterday, Monday March 18, showed that the Robusta coffee inventory monitored by the London exchange increased by 3,680 tons, or an increase of 15.13% compared to a week before, posted signed at 28,000 tons (about 466,667 bags, 60kg bags), mainly Conilon coffee from Brazil.
Financial group Marex Group Plc forecasts that global Robusta coffee production in the 2024/2025 crop year will be short of 2.7 million bags due to a decline in Vietnam’s output. Meanwhile, there is still Rabobank’s forecast to reduce global production in the 2023/2024 crop year by 3.9 million bags, down to 171.1 million bags, mainly due to the reduction in production estimates of Honduras and Indonesia. .
The Reais exchange rate decreased by 0.55% to 1 USD = 5.0249 R$, a 4.5-month low, encouraging Brazilians to sell exported coffee and also contributing to the continued increase in New York futures prices. weaken.
>> Summary of coffee market week 11 (March 11, 2024 – March 16, 2024)
English (giacaphe.com)
