The market expects that the Fed – US and Copom – Brazil will cut monetary interest rates on “Super Wednesday (January 31)”, which has supported world coffee futures prices…
At the end of the trading session, Robusta coffee prices on ICE Europe – London increased for the sixth consecutive session. The March delivery term increased by 61 USD, to 3,336 USD/ton and the May delivery term increased by 59 USD, to 3,181 USD/ton, quite good increases. Trading volume remains quite high above average.
Similarly, Arabica coffee prices on ICE US – New York exchange returned to an upward trend. March delivery futures increased by 4.75 cents, to 194 cents/lb and May delivery futures increased by 4.20 cents, to 190.25 cents/lb, quite good increases. Trading volume remains well above average.
The price of green coffee in the Central Highlands provinces increased by 800 – 900 VND, fluctuating in the range of 78,600 – 79,000 VND/kg.
According to Rabobank, fluctuations in Arabica coffee prices are related to the climate in Brazil and ICE-certified inventories are still hovering around a 24-year low.
Brazil exported 39.2 million bags of coffee in 2023, almost stable (-0.4%) compared to the previous year. According to Cecafé, if there were no delays in boarding procedures at the port of Santos, the yield would have been about 2 million bags higher.
Notably, Conilon Robusta exports reached 4.7 million bags, an increase of 212% compared to 2022.
Due to global supply constraints and more attractive prices in Brazil, recent incidents in the Red Sea, the main shipping route between Europe and Asia, have continued to increase Brazilian Conilon demand in the coming weeks. next.
Cecafé said that Conilon coffee prices increased due to increasing domestic and world demand, while Vietnamese farmers continued to show price resistance and problems with the maritime route passing through the Red Sea. There has been rain recently in southern Brazil, but the recorded rainfall is still below the historical average.
Today is “Super Wednesday January 31”, there are two important events: the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) in Brazil, which is expected to cut the Reais interest rate by 0.5% and the session meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) with expectations that interest rates will decrease by 0.25% and subsequent times.
Even though the General Statistics Office of Vietnam forecasts a strong increase in coffee exports in January 2024, it has not contributed to improving ICE’s inventory reporting data – London is currently continuing to fall to the lowest level since 2014 with 2,886 lots (about 481,000 bags, 60 kg bags), according to data reported yesterday Tuesday, January 30. According to observers, traders mainly deliver goods directly to consumer markets without delivering through the floor.
English (giacaphe.com)
