The current inverse price structure in coffee futures markets suggests supply will improve in the future…
At the end of the trading session, Robusta coffee prices on ICE Europe – London floor adjusted after a series of hot increases. The March delivery term decreased by 31 USD, to 3,305 USD/ton and the May delivery term decreased by 13 USD, to 3,168 USD/ton, significant decreases. Trading volume remains quite high above average.
In contrast, Arabica coffee prices on the ICE US – New York floor maintained an upward trend. March delivery futures increased by 0.05 cents, to 194.05 cents/lb and May delivery futures increased by 0.70 cents, to 190.95 cents/lb, slight increases. Trading volume remains well above average.
The price of green coffee in the Central Highlands provinces decreased by 200 – 300 VND, fluctuating in the range of 78,200 – 79,300 VND/kg.
The Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged this term and not change them next term has attracted speculative capital flows out of stocks and into commodity exchanges in general. Meanwhile, Copom – Brasil has cut interest rates by 0.5% to 11.25%/year and predicts a similar cut in upcoming meetings. Coffee futures exchanges still maintain an inverse price structure, showing that the market is still concerned about short-term supply shortages.
According to consultants and analysts Safras & Mercado, Robusta coffee prices remain high due to concerns about supply when the Asia-Europe maritime route must go around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, causing transportation costs to increase. very high. Speculation that the 2024 Arabica harvest will be larger than the 2023 harvest will put negative pressure on coffee prices in the future. The current inverse price structure in New York is a signal that supply will improve in the future.
English (giacaphe.com)
