Global demand for Robusta coffee is still high, in the context of supply showing signs of tightening, supporting London coffee futures prices to continue their upward trend…
At the end of the weekend trading session, Robusta coffee prices on the ICE Europe – London exchange continued an upward trend. Futures for delivery in May increased by 48 USD, to 3,143 USD/ton and futures for delivery in July increased by 31 USD, to 3,057 USD/ton, quite good increases. Trading volume is above average.
On the contrary, the price of Arabica coffee on ICE US – New York floor reversed and decreased. Futures for delivery in May decreased by 1.05 cents, to 183.30 cents/lb and futures for delivery in July decreased by 1.30 cents, to 181.40 cents/lb, slight decreases. Trading volume remains quite high above average.
The price of green coffee in the Central Highlands provinces increased by 800 – 900 VND, fluctuating in the range of 84,800 – 85,500 VND/kg.
The strong increase in DXY caused the recovery momentum of the London exchange to stall right from the middle of the session. Only at the end of the session did Robusta coffee prices regain their green color when DXY dropped again. Robusta coffee prices recovered again because supplies from main producers in the Southeast Asia region still had extremely high prices. If Indonesian grade 4 Sumatra coffee, with 80 defective beans, is offered for sale at a price difference of up to 700 – 800 USD/ton this week, the price of green Robusta coffee in the Vietnamese domestic market will still maintain. price trend increases, even when London futures prices correct. Meanwhile, the New York stock exchange is still in the red with Honduras’ February export report increasing by more than 26% over the same period to 932,678 bags, putting pressure on New York futures prices. It is known that Honduras is the largest producer of high-quality wet-processed Arabica in Central America, and has long replaced Colombia as the main source of supply on the ICE – US floor, so supply and demand information from Honduras often has a major impact on Arabica futures prices.
The General Statistics Office of Vietnam estimates that coffee exports in February will only reach 160,000 tons, down nearly 20% over the same period last year, making the global consumer market worried about supply shortages, in the context of shortages. ICE – Europe stocks are still hovering at low levels since 2014.
The US PCE index report was lower than expected, causing the market to speculate that the Fed will be aggressive in interest rates to prevent inflation from flaring up again at this March meeting. . The shift in speculative capital flows has caused DXY to increase and decrease erratically, leading to strong price fluctuations on commodity exchanges paid in “greenback” in general.
The Vietnam Institute of Hydrometeorology has warned that the El Nino weather phenomenon is likely to bring dry weather, making this year’s dry season in Vietnam’s main coffee growing regions even more intense.
English (giacaphe.com)
