July Arabica coffee on Tuesday closed down 5.80 cents/pound and July Robusta coffee closed down $16 at $4,117/ton. The trading range during the session was quite wide, when Arabica prices sometimes increased to 2.25 cents and fell to the lowest level of negative 7.4 cents/pound.
Robusta coffee prices are equally volatile, trading between negative $53 and positive $57/ton.
Most trading months of Robusta coffee hover around high levels of over $4,000/ton, proving that this type of coffee is not ready to decline along with Arabica.
The domestic coffee price situation is still very hot, this morning the price was trading around 129,000 VND/kg.
The consequences of last year’s El Nino weather event, which lasted until early 2024, are bringing severe consequences to crops, especially coffee crops, which usually need a lot of water but are struggling with drought. Worst in many years in Vietnam.
Meanwhile, some other growing countries such as Indonesia have had too much rain recently, which is forecast to hinder the 2024 fall crop, which usually starts in April every year.
Stocks of certified graded Arabica coffee held on the New York coffee market are said to have decreased by 3,420 bags yesterday, placing the stock at 639,670 bags.
Technically, as of last week, the Arabica market price has increased for 5 consecutive sessions, so it is likely that this market price will have adjustments, especially when over time, the amount of inventory in the market has increased. The improvement in Arabica stocks has triggered the liquidation of buying positions of funds, predicting that this market price will likely fall further in the remaining sessions of this week.
For Robusta coffee, due to existing supply problems, accumulated from the 2022 crop plus the weather situation, it is clear to growers in Vietnam that it will be severely affected for the crop. Fall comes. This market seems to be completely immune to technical information, Robusta coffee may still have to wait for the decisive reaction of the new fall crop of Indonesia and Brazil to affect the market.
Kinh Vu (giacaphe.com)
