According to Reuters, global freight volumes showed signs of bottoming out in the first quarter, signaling the shipping industry’s downward cycle may be coming to an end. This may support oil prices somewhat by the end of 2023.
Mass freight The global economy shrank 1.1% in the first three months of 2023 from a year earlier, according to the Dutch Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis.
But if you look at each month separately, the freight volume is showing growth. Accordingly, in March, volume increased by 0.2% year-on-year, after falling 2.5% in February and 1.2% in January. This indicates the bottom of the downward cycle of the industry. transportation was created.
Singapore’s maritime container shipping throughput rose to a record 3.26 million TEU in April and is 7% higher than a year ago.
At London’s Heathrow airport, cargo volume was still down 7% in the three months of February to April from a year earlier, but the drop was much smaller than 14% in the October to December period. last.
In Narita in Japan, air freight fell 22% in the three months from January to March, compared with a 26% drop between November 2022 and January 2023.
In the US, there is little sign that the manufacturing and freight cycle is nearing a bottom as the country’s size and centrality in the world economy make the outlook less clear.
U.S. railroads transported 3.1 million containers in the first three months of 2023 compared with 3.4 million in the same period in 2022.
The country’s trucking companies say activity levels fell below 1% in the first three months of 2023, but in March alone, the decline was 5%.
At the nine largest US container terminals, the number of shipping containers handled fell 16% in April and 17% in the first four months of 2023 year-over-year.
Container shipping costs by sea have been more stable since mid-March after falling almost continuously for a year, according to the Freightos Baltic Exchange (FBX) global container index.
FBX is a daily shipping container index issued by the Baltic Exchange and freight booking platform Freightos. The index measures global container freight rates by calculating spot prices for 40-foot containers across 12 global trade routes.
Global 40-foot container shipping price index compiled by the Freightos Baltic Exchange (FBX) from 2016 to May 26, 2023. Source:Freightos Baltic Exchange
Over the last year, global freight has been hit by excess inventory as consumer and business spending has shifted from goods to services in the wake of the pandemic.
Inflationary Persistent, rising interest rates and growing fears of an impending recession are also encouraging households and businesses to be more cautious in spending.
The most recent data suggests that freight volumes may have stabilized or improved towards the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter.
A recovery in production and freight activity should help stabilize consumption of diesel and other fuel oils across major economies, helping to support oil prices.
Lower crude oil, gas and electricity prices than mid-2022 should ease some pressure on consumer spending and business investment, supporting a gradual recovery.
But the recovery in China from the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2023 fell short of expectations, which took some of the momentum away from the global economy.
Corporate inventories remain high across North America and Europe accompanied by a lag in the impact from interest rate hikes, tighter credit conditions, interest rates unemployment The increase will continue to put pressure on households and businesses for at least the next six months.
If this is a turning point for the freight market, then inflation must ease soon to avoid pressure on much higher interest rates. This implies the risk of another downturn in the freight industry.
According to VietnamBiz.vn
