Speculation that the Fed will not be strong has helped the reais to reverse sharply, causing the Brazilian domestic market to increase coffee sales due to concerns that the exchange rate will remain unfavorable…
Robusta chart London 1/2023 session on October 21, 2022
At the end of the last trading session of the week, the price of Robusta coffee on the ICE Europe – London exchange dropped. The November spot term decreased by $44, down to $2,001/ton and the January delivery term in January 2023 decreased by $45 to $1,966/ton, sharp declines. Trading volume remained very high above average.
Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the ICE US floor – New York had the eighth consecutive session of decline. December spot futures fell another 0.15 cents to 190.90 cents/lb and March 2023 futures fell another 0.60 cents to 185.80 cents/lb, slight declines. Trading volume remained very high above average .
The price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands provinces decreased from 800 to 900 VND, to range from 43,600 to 44,000 VND/kg.
Robusta coffee prices reversed sharply as speculation continued to liquidate before the expiration of November futures contracts, not excluded “speculative bear” returned to net selling after the previous liquidation due to the forecast that the supply in the markets is quite abundant when many main producing countries start to harvest the new crop of coffee crop year 2022/2023.
USDX erratic fluctuations in a strong rally from the beginning also made it difficult for coffee prices when the market speculated that the Fed would “easy Please” at the upcoming meeting due to concerns “green silver coin” too strong will prevent the recovery of the world economy in general. This also caused US stocks to rebound strongly, leading to highly liquid derivatives, but put coffee prices at a disadvantage.
Consultant – Analyst Safras & Mercados In a report earlier this week, Brazil sold about 60% of its newly harvested crop, 58% higher than the average in the last 5 years and 52% higher than the same period last year, due to high prices. both in the New York futures market is currently at “quite attractive”.
Preliminary data report of Vietnam General Department of Customs shows that coffee exports in the first half of October reached 36,156 tons (equivalent to 602,600 bags, 60 kg bags), bringing coffee exports in the first 9.5 months of calendar year 2022 to a total of 1,381,345 tons (about 23.01 million bags) increased by 11.05% over the same period last year. At the same time, the preliminary data report also shows that the value of coffee exports totaled 3.16 billion USD, a sharp increase of 35.45% compared to the total export turnover of the same period last year. This shows that in recent times, exporters from Vietnam have boosted their sales as London futures prices have improved significantly.
Note, since the majority of coffee exports from Vietnam are delivered directly to roasters, the London Certified inventory report’s consecutive decline does not mean anything at this time.
Vietnamese farmers have now deployed the harvest of the new Robusta coffee crop this year, which is quite slow due to the still rainy weather causing the coffee cherries to ripen late. It is expected that it will take about 4-5 weeks for the new crop to be delivered to the export port.
English (giacaphe.com)
