ICE inventory reports continue to decline deeply, along with supportive financial factors that have stimulated funds and speculation to return to increase buying with “extremely huge” trade volumes, causing coffee futures prices to increase sharply in the weekend session. …
At the end of the weekend trading session, Robusta coffee prices on ICE Europe – London extended their increasing streak. The January delivery term increased by 77 USD, to 2,479 USD/ton and the March delivery term increased by 79 USD, to 2,422 USD/ton, very strong increases. Trading volume “extremely terrible”.
Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the ICE US – New York floor has the same increasing trend. December delivery futures increased by 1.30 cents, to 165.25 cents/lb and March 2024 delivery futures increased by 2.60 cents, to 164.40 cents/lb, quite strong increases. Trading volume is very high above average.
The price of green coffee in the Central Highlands provinces increased by 1,400 – 1,500 VND, fluctuating in the range of 59,300 – 59,900 VND/kg.
New statements from Fed officials show that they are very cautious about future interest rate decisions. This has caused Wall Street investors to speculate in many directions and the betting market rotates like a whirlwind when there are new signs. The coffee futures market is a highly liquid financial derivative market (along with gold and crude oil), so it appears to be very responsive, in addition to the internal fundamental factors of the dominant commodity. The Reais increased by 0.42%, bringing the exchange rate to 1 USD = 5.0312 R$, also contributing to the increase in coffee prices.
However, the increase in coffee prices on both floors is not easy. Depleting Southeast Asian supplies, reports of continued declines in ICE inventories and a lack of deliveries to export ports in Brazil due to shipping reasons also support the upward price trend.
But once the price increases, pre-sold goods at low prices make the seller lose, they will not deliver the goods, forcing the buyer to renegotiate. Arabica – New York price movements seem to have shown this right from the beginning of the session, so they were reluctant to increase. Only when speculating on the possibility that the Fed will definitely stop raising interest rates until the end of this year and maintain a cycle of high interest rates does DXY change color, the yield of long-term US Treasury bonds declines along with the volatility of rights. Options have expired, investors cannot make any moves during the weekend, in the context of increased risk concerns due to the war in the Middle East, new speculative money flows massively into stocks. General merchandise floor.
English (giacaphe.com)
