According to information from the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), green dominated the price list of industrial raw materials last week (November 4 – 10). In particular, the coffee market is showing positive developments.
Robusta coffee prices increased by 2.27%, ending a series of declines of 5 consecutive weeks; Arabica coffee prices increased by 4.28% after two consecutive weeks of decline. The strengthening of the USD after the US election helped purchasing power become overwhelming, despite positive export data from the world’s leading coffee producing countries.
The Dollar Index increased 0.69% last week, while the Brazilian Real also strengthened, causing the USD/BRL exchange rate to decline from its highest level of nearly three years. However, this does not prevent investors from shifting cash flow to highly profitable markets, leading to increased purchasing power for commodities such as coffee derivatives.
In addition, Brazil recorded less than historical average rainfall in some major coffee growing areas, raising concerns that the 2025-2026 coffee crop cannot fully recover. Agricultural analyst Ana Carolina Gomes said the quality of coffee beans in the 2025-2026 crop has not improved even though heavy rains have returned to Brazil since mid-October, helping coffee trees flower in the main season.
Experts estimate that coffee output in 2025 will decrease due to the impact of previous prolonged drought and high temperatures. At the same time, Mario Ferraz de Araujo, of Cooxupe, Brazil’s leading coffee producer cooperative, said the rain was good but did not change previous losses and output was definitely reduced.
Meanwhile, top producing countries all recorded positive export figures in October compared to the same period last year. The Brazilian government announced that the country exported more than 270,300 tons of green coffee, an increase of nearly 12%; Colombia recorded production of 1.33 million 60kg bags, up 16% with exports reaching 1.04 million bags, up 15%. Honduras exported over 35,200 60kg bags, an increase of 41.7%, while Vietnam is estimated to export more than 44,000 tons, an increase of 1.5%.
Besides, other important data also shows that the global coffee supply is being consolidated, contributing to narrowing the price increase. Coffee inventories in Europe are improving thanks to recent import promotion activities. According to the European Coffee Federation (ECF), coffee inventories in the European Union (EU) as of the end of August reached 8.85 million 60kg bags, recording the 5th consecutive month of increase.
Notably, the World Coffee Organization (ICO) announced that global coffee exports in September reached nearly 10.8 million bags, an increase of 24.9% compared to September 2023. In the 2023-2024 crop year, total global coffee exports have reached 137.3 million bags, an increase of 11.7% compared to the previous crop year.
