Robusta coffee futures in July increased by 28 USD, equivalent to 0.7%, to 3,977 USD/ton after peaking at 4,036 USD. Arabica coffee futures in July increased 0.7% to 2.2840 USD/lb.
On ICE Futures Europe, coffee futures for delivery in May 2024 increased by 31 USD/ton, at 4,005 USD/ton, for delivery in July 2024 increased by 28 USD/ton, at 3,977 USD/ton.
Similarly, on ICE Futures US, the price of coffee futures for delivery in May 2024 increased by 5.2 cents/lb, at 236.75 cents/lb, for delivery in July 2024 increased by 1.55 cents/lb, at level of 228.4 cents/lb.
Thus, Arabica coffee increased to its highest level in the past year and a half and Robusta coffee continued to hold the mark of 4,000 USD/ton, which is a symbolic high mark of all time. According to many export businesses , April 16 can be said to be the trading day that creates a 30-year historical price milestone for coffee.
Coffee prices have increased steeply since the end of March (Source: Trading Economics)
This causes domestic coffee prices to continue to remain high and continuously increase. Specifically, as of April 17, Dak Nong province is anchored at the highest threshold of 116,200 VND/kg, an increase of 1,600 VND/kg.
After increasing 1,500 VND/kg, traders in Gia Lai and Dak Lak provinces traded coffee at prices of 115,900 VND/kg and 116,000 VND/kg, respectively.
Currently, the lowest coffee price recorded in Lam Dong province is 115,600 VND/kg, an increase of 1,600 VND/kg. Coffee prices in Kon Tum province are also purchased at 116,000 VND/kg.
These are all dream prices for farmers. However, this is the regret of many people, because there is no more goods to sell. Meanwhile, traders and purchasing businesses are having headaches because coffee prices are too high. Many processing and exporting enterprises did not have time to accumulate goods and were forced to buy when prices were at their peak to fulfill signed contracts.
Domestic coffee prices (Source: giacaphe
The La Nina weather phenomenon is expected to return from June to August this year, causing concerns about frost that will delay the 2024-2025 coffee harvest in Brazil, and even cause young coffee trees to freeze to death. . This makes the supply outlook in the world’s largest coffee exporting country more negative, despite both production and export figures showing signs of increase.
Specifically, Brazil’s 2024 coffee output is estimated to reach 60.2 million bags, an increase of 1.4% compared to the previous forecast and 5.6% compared to 2023, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). .
In addition, in March, Brazil exported 4.29 million bags of coffee, an increase of 37.8% over the same period last year, according to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (CECAFE). As of April 9, Brazil had sold 89% of coffee production in the 2023-2024 crop, 2 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous crop and 1 percentage point compared to the 5-year average.
Meanwhile, in Vietnam, coffee production in the 2024-2025 crop year is expected to continue to decrease compared to the current crop if the dry and sunny condition continues.
The negative outlook for new crop supply has motivated farmers to hoard existing coffee, making the supply shortage in the market even more serious. Furthermore, Indonesian farmers can postpone coffee harvest until late May or June, instead of April as usual; This further narrows the current supply, thereby pushing Robusta prices up sharply.
In 2023, Vietnam exports about 1.61 million tons of coffee, bringing in 4.18 billion USD, ranking in the top 5 agricultural commodity groups with the highest export turnover of the year. Although the amount of coffee exports decreased by 9.6% compared to 2022, due to a sharp increase in export prices, the turnover still reached a historical record.
