In the early morning of November 8 (Vietnam time), closing the trading session on the London floor (UK), Robusta coffee prices surprisingly increased in all 4 delivery terms, with an increase of 4.06% – 4.2 %. This is the highest price increase in more than a month, when Vietnam entered the 2024-2025 harvest season.
Specifically, in the January 2025 delivery term, Robusta coffee price increased to 4,486 USD/ton (equivalent to 113 million VND/ton), an increase of 179 USD/ton (4.5 million VND/ton); at the March 2025 delivery term, it increased to 4,424 USD/ton, an increase of 176 USD/ton; May 2025 delivery term is at 4,365 USD/ton, an increase of 176 USD/ton; For term delivery in July 2025, the price is at 4,282/ton, an increase of 167 USD/ton.
The US is Vietnam’s 5th largest coffee import market (after Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain) with a volume of 90,887 tons in the recent 2023-2024 crop year. The sharp increase in Robusta coffee prices after Donald Trump was elected 47th US President surprised and confused many people.
Not only Robusta coffee but also Arabica coffee on the New York floor (USA) also increased strongly in the last trading session with an increase of 4.56% – 4.72%. Accordingly, the Arabica delivery term in December 2024 has the highest price at 5,740 USD/ton, an increase of 260 USD/ton.
Coffee prices have increased sharply in the past 2 years
Having been active in the coffee industry for a long time, Mr. Nguyen Huu Long, Director of Vietnam Coffee Academy Joint Stock Company VCA (Gia Lai), said that coffee prices are heavily influenced by speculative factors so it is difficult to predict. . However, speculators must also rely on real market demand to invest in the direction of up or down prices.
“Coffee is being harvested in the Central Highlands and crop failure is quite obvious. The lack of supply is still the main factor keeping coffee prices at a high level” – Mr. Long explained.
However, Mr. Long is also concerned about oversupply in the near future because Vietnamese farmers are very good at farming so they can push output to increase very quickly in just a few seasons. And as long as there is a slight oversupply of coffee, coffee prices will plummet as has happened before.
According to Mr. Long, the coffee price on the London floor is a reference price, while the coffee transaction price in raw material areas has many differences, depending on factors such as quality and harvest area.
Mr. Le Vu Dong, CEO of LeSon Cafe brand (Ea Kar district, Dak Lak), said that the price of raw coffee locally is about 120,000 VND/kg and businesses are buying selected coffee in Price 150,000 VND/kg.
“Compared to 2 years ago, coffee prices have increased 3 times but the price of finished coffee products has only increased by about 20%, the profit margin of roasting businesses is currently very thin” – Mr. Dong said.
