Affirming to maintain the current USD interest rates of the Fed and the fear of rising US public debt stimulated investors to strongly move capital flows back to the derivatives exchanges …
Robusta London T5 / 2021 chart session on February 23, 2021
At the end of the session, Robusta coffee prices on ICE Europe – London continued to rise. May spot futures increased by 44 USD, to 1,460 USD / ton and July futures also increased by 44 USD, to 1,475 USD / ton, the strong increases. Trading volume maintained in mGermany very high, rare. Robusta coffee prices rose to a 5-month high.
Similarly, Arabica coffee prices on the ICE US – New York floor are in the same upward trend. Futures for delivery in May increased by 3.35 cents, to 138.3 cents / lb and for July futures also increased by 3.35 cents, to 140.05 cents / lb, the increases were quite strong. Trading volume maintained very high above mGermany medium. Arabica coffee prices stood at a 14-month high.
The price of green coffee in the Central Highlands provinces increased by 500-600 VND, up fluctuating in the frame of 32,900 – 33,400 VND / kg.
Export Robusta coffee price type 2, 5% broken black, stood at 1,535 USD / ton, FOB – HCM, with a plus difference of 50-60 USD / ton in terms of July futures in London.
Reais copper rose slightly 0.22%, to 1 USD = 5.4420 Reais as investors expected interest rates to rise again soon after the intervention of the Brazilian government in petroleum stocks. Meanwhile, USDX fell again due to concerns about high public debt of the US government with high long-term bond yields (1.35 – 1.40%) while monetary interest rates remained at high levels. 0% stimulated speculation in derivative commodity markets, shifting capital flows, causing gold prices, crude oil prices to weaken and coffee prices continue to soar.
Coffee prices have not only turned up temporarily due to rising US Treasury rates have put pressure on the US dollar, while US oak stocks have fallen erratically according to covid-19, although the market has been somewhat optimistic about vaccines. vaccinations are produced more. Winter frost in Brazil is only an forecast, but the decline in output of the new crop this year is no longer unquestionable. The problem is that speculators choose when to pour capital into the derivative coffee floors up. (Please re-read the coffee market news yesterday, February 23, 2021)
Rabobank has just revised down its forecast for Brazil’s Arabica crop this year by 1.2 million bags from its December forecast to 36 million bags. At the same time, Rabobank also forecasts a global surplus of about 10 million bags in crop year 2020/2021 translates to a shortage of about 2.6 million bags in crop year 2021/2022. It can be speculated that Rabobank expects Brazilian coffee output this year to decrease by approximately 20%.
This year’s winter frost issue in Brazil is being paid more attention by the market.
English (giacaphe.com)
