Specifically, Robusta coffee prices decreased for the 4th consecutive week, to the lowest level in more than two months, while Arabica coffee also turned down after the previous good week. The market is under dual pressure from expectations of improved supply and exchange rate fluctuations.
At the end of the week (October 21-27), Robusta coffee prices decreased 4.42% to 5,476.28 USD/ton, while Arabica coffee prices lost 3.46% to 4,411 USD/ton.
In that context, the market received positive signals about weather conditions in Brazil. According to a report by Somar Meteorologia Company, rainfall in Minas Gerais state – the country’s largest coffee growing region – reached about 36.8 mm last week, equivalent to 115% of the historical average. This creates favorable conditions for the flowering and young fruit production of coffee trees in the 2025-2026 crop.
However, analysts and farmers are still cautious about the possibility of output recovery. The reason is that the rain coming later than usual can affect the ability of plants to fully recover. Besides, it is still too early to accurately forecast the yield of the 2025-2026 crop.
For the Robusta coffee market, harvesting activities in Vietnam are the focus of attention. Although the total output of the 2024-2025 crop is expected to decrease compared to the previous crop, new supply is still expected to contribute to balancing the market in the near future.
Regarding macro factors, the Dollar Index increased for the 4th consecutive week, causing the USD/BRL exchange rate to reach its highest level in more than two months. This raises concerns that Brazil will boost exports to benefit from exchange rate differences, thereby creating more downward pressure on prices.
On the domestic market, coffee prices on October 28 differed between regions. At Vung Tau port, coffee futures for delivery in December 2024 fluctuated between 109,400-110,000 VND/kg, up about 80% compared to 61,000 VND/kg in the same period last year but down nearly 10% compared to the peak. 121,000 VND/kg was achieved in September. Meanwhile, the transaction price at Cai Lan port was 50 – 100 VND/kg lower.
