Coffee futures prices continued their rally, with the inverse price structure broadening, reflecting really tight spot demand…
Robusta chart London March 2022 session on 15/12/2021
At the end of the session, the price of Robusta coffee on the ICE Europe – London floor continued the uptrend. Futures for delivery in January increased by 31 USD, to 2,437 USD/ton and term for delivery in March increased by 6 USD, to 2,303 USD/ton, slight increases. Trading volume above average. The island price structure widens the gap.
Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the ICE US floor – New York increased for the third consecutive session. March spot futures added 0.15 cents to 237.30 cents/lb and May futures added 0.40 cents to 237.50 cents/lb, slight gains. Trading volume above average. The island price structure widens the gap.
The price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands provinces increased from 0 to 100 dong, to range from 42,300 to 42,700 dong/kg.
The price of exported Robusta coffee, grade 2.5% black broken, stood at 2,053 USD/ton, FOB – HCM, with a deduction of about 230 – 250 USD/ton according to the March futures price in London.
The reais fell 0.24%, the exchange rate fell to 1 USD = 5.7080 Reais after the news that the Fed will tighten the currency since January 2022 with the doubling of the debt purchase program to 30 billion USD/month. for 3 months and raise the basic interest rate as soon as this program ends. The Fed seems to show “Eagle” than the market speculated because inflation was already at “can’t wait” more. This will put USDX up and stocks and commodities in general at a disadvantage.
Although the price of coffee futures fell as soon as the market opened, the downward pressure was not great enough, while the demand for spot goods was still high, it stimulated the price to increase again and the inverse price structure was widened. on both floors.
The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) said that coffee production in the current crop year 2021/2022 may decrease because many old crops are not replanted in time because of prolonged low prices, while a significant amount of land is converted to crops of higher economic value by farmers.
USDA’s latest report states that Robusta coffee exports from Vietnam in crop year 2021/2022 will increase slightly compared to the previous crop year. According to our observations, it is possible that the increase in exports is due to old inventory due to the covid-19 epidemic and logistics problems, so it cannot be exported, not because of increased output.
Typhoon Rai, the No. 9 storm, will enter the South China Sea later this week and will change course along the Central Coast provinces to the North. The Central Highlands coffee region will have a lot of rain, which will hinder the harvest but not for a long time.
ANhan Van (giacaphe.com)
