The selling pressure of the new crop will prompt the exchanges to soon adjust the price to be more reasonable between the tenor months…
London Robusta chart January 1, 2022 session on 11/22/2021
At the end of the first session of the week, the price of Robusta coffee on the ICE Europe – London exchange increased. Futures for delivery in January increased by 6 USD, to 2,251 USD/ton and term for delivery in March increased by 1 USD, to 2,198 USD/ton, very slight increases. Trading volume below average. The island price structure still holds the gap.
On the contrary, the price of Arabica coffee on the ICE US floor – New York reversed to decrease. March spot futures fell 2.10 cents to 231.30 cents/lb and May delivery also fell 2.10 cents to 231.30 cents/lb, very significant reductions. Trading volume below average. The price structure of the island is maintained in the middle of the futures months.
The price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands provinces increased from 0 to 100 dong, to range from 41,400 to 42,000 dong/kg.
Export price of Robusta coffee grade 2.5% black broken, stood at 1,978 USD/ton, FOB – HCM, with a deduction of about 200 – 220 USD/ton according to the March futures price in London.
The reais increased by 0.28%, the exchange rate rose to 1 USD = 5.5940 Reais because USDX had a technical correction at the beginning of the week, while the Brazilian market still has potential risks that make investors foreign capital. concerns, especially the risk of breaking the budget ceiling.
Coffee prices reversed a downward trend after USDA report showed that Brazil’s Arabica production in 2022 will not be as bad as the market had predicted, while global supply remains steady growth and global consumption is likely to decline. This is partly due to the fact that many countries are still practicing social distancing because the covid-19 pandemic continues to spread everywhere.
However, despite remaining in the red throughout the session, London futures prices reversed to regain the green just before the close. (see chart). This shows that speculation continues to show concern about supply shortage and find ways to attract spot goods to the floor.
Brazil-based analyst-consultant-analyst Safras & Mercados reported that Brazilians have so far sold 26% of their total production in the 2022/2023 crop, though still lower than the record 2020/2021 crop sold. achieved in the same period of 2019. The problem is that the high current price on the New York Stock Exchange will cause many farmers to break their contracts because they do not want to deliver because they are disadvantaged. Perhaps this has caused the price of futures in New York months, from March 2022 to July 2014, to change insignificantly, something that many observers have not seen and do not see. excludes the possibility that this floor will quickly correct again.
ANhan Van (giacaphe.com)
