Coffee prices fell again over the weekend as drought concerns eased thanks to recent above-average rains in Brazil. Coffee prices fell to a four-week low on Tuesday after Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that the largest arabica growing region, Minas Gerais, received 102.8 mm of rain last week, or 182 m². % compared to historical average.
March Arabica coffee closed last weekend down 8.20 cents/pound at 318.65 cents, down from last week’s close of 322.65 cents.
Although Robusta coffee closed at the end of the day down 88$, compared to last week’s closing price of 4953$/ton, this week it still increased slightly, at 4968$/ton.
The recent weakness of the Brazilian real has boosted manufacturer sales, adding to the decline in prices.
On Thursday, after the New Year holiday, Robusta coffee prices increased to their highest level in 2 weeks due to concerns that the ongoing heavy rains in Vietnam will disrupt the robusta coffee harvest. This year’s harvest has been delayed following prolonged unseasonal rains as well as being affected by a tropical depression on the southern coast of Vietnam, which will lead to quality problems in the country. The world’s leading producer of Robusta coffee.
The General Department of Vietnam Customs reported Vietnam’s cumulative exports in the first two months of the current coffee season (from October 2024 to September 2025) at 983,000 bags, a decrease of 36.61 %, compared to the same period last year. This year-on-year decline in reported exports may be due to harvest delays due to persistent wet weather in the first two months of the season, while some other sources suspect that it is more likely also due to a significant decrease in output.
The climate in Brazil for much of December, was reported to have improved and dispersed rainfall across the vast coffee growing regions. The forecast calls for continued rain throughout the rest of the month, which is needed for the new coffee crop to grow. The upcoming crop is expected to reach about 64 million bags.
In terms of consumption, except for Brazil, which is second only to the United States, there are other emerging consumption markets that have appeared over time, mainly in coffee-producing countries such as China and India. , Indonesia and Vietnam have seen significant increases in domestic coffee consumption along with growth in value-added products and export industries.
According to a report by the US Department of Agriculture, China has seen domestic consumption increase by 40% over the past five years, potentially reaching consumption of 6.20 million bags in the 2024/25 coffee season. Meanwhile, domestic consumption in Indonesia is expected to reach 4.80 million bags in the current coffee season, an increase of 10.35% over the past five years. The ministry also predicts that Vietnam’s domestic consumption will total about 3.60 million bags in the 2024/2025 crop year, marking a growth of 33.33% over the past 5 years.
Certified Arabica holdings on the New York exchange increased by 5,830 bags last week, reaching 985,797 bags.
Technically, we believe that Robusta price is showing signs of reversing in a downward direction. We may soon see the March market price return to the support level of 4884$/ton, possibly down to the $4816, at this level there will be a bid and the price may rebound in a new short cycle from here. In short, next week’s price is forecast to most likely decrease.
Kinh Vu (giacaphe.com)
