Over the past week, commodity markets in general have had more basic information that has supported the upward price trend, especially on both world coffee futures exchanges…
For the whole week of March 2024, the London market had 3 increasing sessions and 2 decreasing sessions in the middle of the week. The price of Robusta coffee for March delivery increased by a total of 189 USD, or an increase of 6.43%, to 3,128 USD/ton and for May delivery, a total increase of 153 USD, or an increase of 5.44%, to 2,967 USD/ton. tons, sharp increases. Trading volume is quite above average.
Meanwhile, the New York market had 3 increasing sessions and 1 decreasing session in the middle of the week. Arabica coffee futures for March delivery increased by 5.15 cents, or 2.86%, to 185.15 cents/lb, and May futures for delivery increased by a total of 4.50 cents, or 2.54%, to 181.85 cents/lb, decent increases. Trading volume is quite above average.
The price of green coffee in the Central Highlands market increased by 2,000 – 2,100 VND, fluctuating in the range of 71,800 – 72,500 VND/kg.
During the week, DXY increased 1.47% as the market accepted the fact that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will not start the interest rate cutting cycle at its March meeting, stimulating investors to return to investing. capital into commodity markets in general. Meanwhile, the blockage of the Panama and Suez canals, causing the world’s maritime routes to slow down the transport of goods, also pushed up market prices, especially coffee products shipped from Asian producers. To reach European consumer markets, they have to go around South Africa, which costs more time and costs, pushing Robusta coffee futures prices in London to an all-time high.
Supporting the increase in coffee futures prices on both exchanges this week is also the weather information that the main Arabica coffee regions in southern Brazil are still lacking rain, which could seriously affect Brazil’s Arabica output in the growing season. The upcoming season will be a high-yield crop according to the “two-year” cycle.
The highlight of the week is the first 2024 crop survey report of the Agricultural Products Survey and Supply Agency (Conab) under the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, which announced the results of the first survey. Accordingly, Conab has Brazil’s coffee output forecast in 2024 is estimated at 58.8 million bags, 5.5 million bags higher than the previous year, of which Arabica increased by 4.7% compared to the previous crop to 40.75 million. bags and Conilon Robusta increased by 7.20% to 17.33 million bags. Conab has a conservative tradition, with the first released numbers often being thought to be 8 – 10% lower than reality, so they will be gradually adjusted upward for the next time, so the survey results give This release has surprised the market about the change and has caused the market to speculate that total Brazilian coffee production in 2024 will be about 68 million bags.
In addition, contributing to the upward price market is the data reported by the ICE Report Center at the end of the week showing that ICE – US inventory is still around a 24-year low, ICE – Europe inventory is currently only slightly higher than Vietnam. Nam boosts exports in 1 month. While there are rumors in the market that farmers of the two main Robusta producers in Southeast Asia continue to resist prices and India is losing revenue because of heavy unseasonal rains. It is expected that Robusta coffee demand for the consumer market will still be tight in the short and medium term.
Robusta coffee inventories issued by the London Exchange Certified and monitored, as of Friday, January 19, have decreased by 3,100 tons, or 9.36% compared to a week earlier, down to register at 30,010 tons ( about 500,167 bags, 60 kg bags), a record low for many years, has contributed to supporting London coffee futures prices to continue their strong increase this week.
Anh Van (giacaphe.com)
