Coffee exports in the first half of 2019 – 2020 reached 61.96 million bags, down 3.9% from 64.5 million bags in 2018-2019, of which arabica coffee shipments decreased 7.8% to 38.6 million bags while robusta exports increased by 3.2% to 23.36 million bags.
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| Source: ICO |
Brazil
Export from Brazil in March increased by 0.2% to 3.12 million bags due to the sharp increase of the country's coffee price as well as the depreciation of the real against the USD. Brazil's exports in the first 6 months decreased by 10.9% to 19.6 million bags, largely due to the decline in arabica coffee output at the end of the biennial cycle.
However, exports for the whole crop this year, which ended in March, reached 40.11 million bags, 6% higher than the previous year. Much of the growth in exports occurred in the first half of the year thanks to the sale of reserves from the record harvest in 2018-2019.
In addition, green robusta shipments increased by 40.5% to 4.1 million bags while arabica exports increased by 2.8% to 31.97 million bags. After a decline in 2017-2018, exports of instant coffee have grown over the past two years, up 5.5% to 4.01 million bags this year.
Colombia
Colombia's exports in March decreased by 20.9% to 903,000 bags, making the total export in the first 6 months to 6.81 million bags, 4.7% lower than the same period last year.
The decline in exports was mainly due to a fall in production in the second quarter. According to the Federation of Coffee Growers in Colombia (FNC), production in the first 6 months was estimated to increase 6.1% to 7.41 million bags.
However, most of this increase occurred in the first quarter when production increased by 24.1% to 4.56 million bags while production in the second quarter decreased by 13.8% to 2.86 million bags.
The lower output supported Colombian coffee prices in March despite the depreciation of the peso against the dollar.
Other countries
Exports from Vietnam in March were estimated to decrease by 2% to about 2.5 million bags and in the first 6 months decreased by 3.7% to 13.65 million bags compared to the same period last year. The sustained losses of robusta coffee prices this season may prevent farmers from selling coffee.
Export from Indonesia in March increased by 11.9% to 535,000 bags and in the first 6 months increased sharply by 54.1% to 3.12 million bags despite a significantly lower production this season.
Indonesia's total exports in this season (from April 2019 to March 2020) increased 60% to 7.55 million bags compared to 4.72 million bags last year. Compared to two years ago, exports of instant coffee doubled to 2.78 million bags.
Shipments from Honduras dropped about 7% to 750,000 bags in March and fell 2.3% to 2.75 million bags in the first 6 months. Record January is the only month the country's exports increased.
Prices continue to be low and for small-scale producers this price is below production costs as well as drought in some farms has affected output this season after several years of strong growth. strong.
Decreased coffee consumption
Imports of major markets totaled 40.56 million bags in the first four months of the year, 9.4% lower than the same period.
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| Source: ICO |
Imports of all types of coffee fell during this period. Import of green coffee decreased by 3.7% to 31.73 million bags. Import of processed coffee, accounting for 21.8% of total imports, also saw a decrease. Import of roasted coffee decreased by 22.5% to 5.39 million bags and instant coffee decreased by 28.8% to 3.44 million bags.
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| Source: ICO |
In January, imports for major consuming countries decreased by 25.2% to 8.71 million bags, but still greater than the European Union and US imports in 2018-2019.
In addition, the sudden increase in prices from late November to December 2019 may have led importers to delay further purchases.
While consumption in 2018 – 2019 in Europe increased by 4.9%, in North America increased by 5.7%, imports in the first 4 months of 2019 – 2020 showed that demand growth is not likely to sustain in This threshold will, instead, be closer to the long-term average.
In 2019-2020, world coffee consumption is estimated at 166.06 million bags, an increase of 0.5%. Many countries suspended unnecessary activities and introduced social isolation measures, which negatively impacted the consumption of non-household coffee.
In addition, job loss can reduce demand, especially for consumers who do not have a habit of drinking coffee. According to revised estimates, the surplus of supply and demand could reach 1.95 million bags this year.
The output of 2019-2020 is unchanged because most of the harvest occurs before the global pandemic. Instead, production in 2020-2021 is likely to be affected when the harvest begins in countries like Brazil.
According to Economy and Consumption
