Compared with the first six months of 2009, the export price of pepper has now increased by about $1,000/ton. However, the amount of domestic export pepper is no longer available. Once again, the loss lesson from forecasting and stockpiling in the agricultural industry has been repeated.
The Vietnam Pepper Association (VPA) said that by the end of September 2009, Vietnam’s pepper exports reached 104,786 tons of all kinds, with a total turnover of 256 million USD.
If based on the data of VPA, the total supply of pepper in 2009 is about 115,000 tons, from now until the end of the year businesses will no longer have to spend for export. It is worth mentioning that September is also the second consecutive month that export pepper prices have shown signs of recovery.
The average export price of black pepper was US$2,723/ton and the average price of white pepper was US$3,946/ton. Compared with the average price of the first six months of the year, the export price of pepper increased by about $1,000/ton. Thus, only counting the amount of pepper exported, Vietnam has lost about 100 million USD.
It is worth mentioning that this is not the first time pepper exporters have “unjustly lost” hundreds of millions of dollars like that. Because in the history of the pepper industry, the story of massively selling when the price is cheap, until the price is high, sitting and watching is not new.
If calculating the difference between the highest month and the lowest month, 2007 is 1,909 USD/ton and 2006 is 2,070 USD/ton. That is not to mention that although Vietnamese pepper has the highest quality in the world, it has become a tradition that the export price is always 300-500 USD/ton lower than the world price.
Mr. Tran Duc Tung, chief of VPA’s office, said that the first quarter of 2009 was the time when Vietnam’s pepper was harvested, and other pepper growing countries had not yet harvested it, so in theory, the supply of pepper to the world was mainly from Vietnam. We can control both export prices and output. However, instead of restricting exports to raise prices, businesses sold out massively.
Also in June 2009, the VPA office issued a warning to businesses that global pepper production increased insignificantly due to natural disasters and low prices, affecting production. Consumption demand has not shown any decrease. The amount of pepper for export in the last six months of 2009 is not much (estimated at 35,000-40,000 tons).
If the progress of exports continues to increase as before, in July, August, September, and September, in case pepper prices go up, the quantity of domestic goods will be exhausted, farmers, businesses and the State will all lose. However, businesses continued to export until the end of September when VPA admitted that there was no longer pepper for export.
Pepper exporters blamed poor forecasts on the association and the Ministry of Industry and Trade. However, with this method, only pepper growers will suffer because they always have to sell at low prices from the beginning of the crop, and when the price increases, the pepper will no longer exist. Even when the export price spiked, the purchase price of pepper in the domestic market did not increase. The evidence is that the domestic purchase price in September remained unchanged at 46,000-48,000 VND/kg, not much higher than in previous months.
According to the TTO
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