The price of Arabica coffee increased to the new peak and the price of Robusta coffee was maintained close to a record high due to the concern for the shortage of supply after Brazil forecasted the country’s coffee production in the 2025-2026 crop. to the lowest level in 3 years.
Closing the session on 4-2, the price of Arabica coffee delivered in March in New York market increased by 0.64%, to 383.35 cents/pound (0.453 kg), equivalent to US $ 8451/ton, established New price peak.
Meanwhile, the price of Robusta coffee delivered in March in London increased by 0.43%, to $ 5,558/ton, not far from the record high price of $ 5,709/ton set on January 30 .
The price of Arabica coffee has increased by 10 consecutive sessions, marking the longest price increasing circuit since 1980, the coffee market began to heat up from the beginning of the week before the management and monitoring agency supply of agricultural goods. Brazil (Conab) forecasts that coffee production in the 2025-2026 crop will decrease 4.4% compared to the previous crop, to the lowest level in 3 years of 51.81 million bags (each bag equivalent to 60kg) . CONAB also cut coffee production estimated in the last year of 1.1%, to 54.2 million bags.
The risk of coffee shortage in Brazil, the largest Arabica coffee producer in the world, continues to make traders worried after the amount of record exports in the early crop makes the current supply available in This country is less. On February 3, Brazil’s Comexim Export Company said that the output of Arabica and Robusta coffee in the country is expected to decrease in the 2025-2026 crop.
The Brazilian Real Estate is also the motivation to promote coffee prices. Yesterday, Brazil’s currency increased to the highest level in 2 and a half months compared to the US dollar. The stronger Real coin reduces the export sales of Brazilian coffee manufacturers.
The impact of El Nino dry weather last year could cause long -term damage to the coffee season in South America and Central America. The rainfall in Brazil continues to be lower than the average since April last year, causing harmful to coffee trees in the blossoming period, reducing the prospect of Brazil’s Arabica 2025-2026 coffee season.
According to the Center for Early Monitoring and Warning of the National Disaster (Cemaden), Brazil is facing the drought -drought weather since 1981. Secondly, the world, recovering slowly after the serious drought caused by the El Nino phenomenon last year.
However, higher rainfall in Brazil in recent times has reduced concerns about drought. On February 3, the Somar Meteorologia Meteorological Agency said that Minas Gerais, the largest Arabica coffee growing area in Brazil, received an 11 mm rainfall last week, equivalent to 203% compared to the historic average.
Meanwhile, the price of Robusta coffee is supported in the context of continuous production. According to estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam, due to drought, coffee production in the 2023-2024 crop decreased by 20%, to 1,472 million tons, the lowest level in the past 4 years. Vietnam is the largest Robusta producer in the world.
Vietnam’s coffee exports in 2024 was estimated at 1.32 million tons, earning 5.48 billion USD, down 18.8% in volume but increased by 29.11% in value compared to the same period of the year. 2023. In December last year, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association raised the forecast of Vietnamese coffee production 2024-2025 to 28 million bags, from the forecast of October 27 million.
The latest price increase of Arabica coffee is partly related to the threat of US President Donald Trump’s tax on goods of Colombia’s goods, the second largest coffee exporter to the United States. On January 26, President Donald Trump ordered an emergency order to impose a 25% tariff on Colombian goods a few hours after the country refused to allow two military aircraft to carry Colombians to be deported. Later, he canceled the tax order when Colombia agreed to receive the deportation of citizens on military aircraft.
However, Mr. Trump’s unpredictable tariff policy caused concerns in the coffee market. During the presidential campaign, Mr. Trump proposes to apply a universal tax rate of 10% for goods imported from all countries. Arbica coffee price increased by about 16% since Mr. Trump took office on January 20.
Javier Blas, an analysis of the agricultural commodity and energy market of Bloomberg, warns that the global inventory can be reduced to the second lowest level in 65 years due to the supply of no need. This analyst said that the global coffee supply chain has undergone a shortage of 4 consecutive years, with the need to exceed the supply of 15-20 million bags per year, leading to the amount of coffee inventory Kiet.
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