According to congthuong.vn
According to So GiVietnamese goods translation pond (MXV), ending the trading week November 27 – December 3, ca pheh Arabica is the bright spot of the whole market when it skyrocketed nearly 10%. MXV said that standard inventory suddenly dropped sharply, combined with speculators’ expectations of increased prices, pushing the price of this item to its highest level in more than 5 months.
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The prices of two types of coffee increased, in which Arabica increased extremely strongly |
Specifically, the standard Arabica inventory on the European Intercontinental Commodity Service (ICE-US) last week dropped deeply by nearly 70,000 60kg bags, bringing the total amount of certified Arabica to 224,066 bags, the lowest level in more than 24 years. Previously, the European Coffee Federation (ECF) also said that coffee inventories in this region as of the end of October were at their lowest level since 2017, with 8.4 million bags. This has raised concerns about a temporary supply shortage in the market.
Besides, speculators continue to increase their buying when they expect prices to increase. A weakening dollar could limit export demand from supplier countries like Brazil.
Robusta prices last week also increased slightly by 1.06%, mainly thanks to the pull from Arabica prices.
On the domestic market, recorded yesterday morning (December 3), the price of green coffee in the Central Highlands and Southern provinces fluctuated between 58,900 – 59,900 VND/kg, an increase of 1,200 – 1,600 VND/kg compared to with the first day of the week.
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Vietnamese coffee export prices continue to increase |
According to the General Statistics Office, after 7 consecutive months of decline, Vietnam’s coffee exports in November 2023 are estimated to increase again, reaching 80,000 tons, a sharp increase of 83% compared to October 2023, but down 37,000 tons. 9% over the same period in 2022. Export turnover reached 251.85 million USD, a sharp increase of 59.9% over October, but down 17.5% over the same period in 2022.
Overall, in the first 11 months of 2023, coffee exports will reach 1.38 million tons, down 12.9% over the same period in 2022; Turnover reached 3.54 billion USD, down 2.5%.
After 8 consecutive months of increase, the average export coffee price in November 2023 decreased, reaching 3,148 USD/ton, down 12.6% compared to October 2023, but still increased 32.8% compared to the same period in 2022. Accumulated for the first 11 months of 2023, reaching 2,570 USD/ton, an increase of 11.9% over the same period in 2022.
Localities are harvesting coffee in the 2023/2024 crop year. However, rain in the main growing areas has hindered the drying of fresh coffee beans. With weather conditions like this, supply will only be replenished in the next three weeks.
According to experts, the supply shortage in Vietnam is also the reason that contributes to supporting the upward price trend in the near future because concerns about supply shortages still prevail. The reason for the decrease in exports is also assessed by experts as being that Vietnamese coffee inventories have fallen to the lowest level ever.
Up to this point, coffee output has decreased but prices have increased. There was a time when the price of domestic coffee increased to 70,000 VND/kg.
The country’s coffee area is estimated to be nearly 720,000 hectares, but in fact only 600,000 hectares are planted exclusively with coffee, the remaining area is intercropped by farmers with other crops. Of this total of nearly 720,000 hectares, there are currently only more than 185,000 hectares of coffee area certified for sustainable production.
In the world, the 2023/24 crop year is also assessed that the global coffee supply situation is facing a less positive picture. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lowered estimates of Robusta production in all three of the world’s largest producing countries: Vietnam, Brazil and Indonesia. It is even expected that Vietnam’s coffee output will decrease by 10% this crop year.
High coffee prices are generally good news for the Vietnamese coffee industry but also pose potential risks of local export imbalance. This reminds of the supply situation in the final months of the 2022/23 crop year, when domestic coffee prices were continuously anchored at 70,000 VND/kg but there was not enough goods to sell.
