On January 29, global Arabica coffee price touched a record high of US $ 3.6/lb (1lb = 0.45kg), when Brazil – the largest coffee producing country in the world – announced about to run out of shallow Export supply and concerns about the upcoming harvest continued.
Traders say 70-80% of Brazila’s current Arabica coffee reserves have been sold out and new transactions are relatively slow. Brazil produces nearly half of the global Arabica coffee production, which is a popular world coffee used in roasted coffee products.
The recent weather in Brazil has been more favorable after serious drought in 2024. However, according to information from the Brazilian Food Supply Agency (Conab), the upcoming harvest output is expected to be small. More than 4.4% compared to last season.
Global coffee supply is still limited
Report of Hedgehoint Global Markets brokerage said that global coffee supply is still limited. Arabica coffee harvested in Central America and Colombia takes more time to market, while Brazilian farmers are not interested in selling more.
Since the beginning of the year, the contract of selling Arabica coffee on ICE has reached a record high of US $ 3.6945/lb, bringing a coffee price increase to nearly 15%.
Just like Arabica coffee, the price of Robusta coffee – a popular global coffee, is usually cheaper and mainly used to produce instant coffee – increased by 0.9% to $ 5,609 per ton.
Coffee exports from India – the world’s world largest Robusta coffee producer – is expected to decrease by more than 10% in 2025 due to lower production and inventory from the previous season.
Transactions said that farmers in both India and Vietnam, the two leading Robusta coffee producing countries in the world, are limited to selling coffee because they hope the price will continue to increase.
Success brokerage company said in a report that the current amount of coffee reserves of Brazil has dropped to about 500,000 bags, compared to about 8 million bags as usual, this means any interrupting time. Any more details may have a great impact on global coffee prices.
Sucden predicts the global coffee market will record the fourth consecutive shortage in the current season. Among other agricultural products, the price of raw sugar has increased by 1.1% to 19.45 US/LB, strongly recovered from the lowest level in the last 5 months, while the white sugar price increased by 2.2. % to 522.90 USD/lb. Cocoa contracts on the new York trading floor increased by 3.3% to 11,745 USD/ton, while cocoa on the London trading floor increased by 1.6% to 9,138 GBP/ton (11,372.61 USD/USD/ ton).
