In the first quarter of 2023, Thailand is one of the markets export positive growth in Vietnam. Specifically, in the first quarter of 2023, Vietnam exported 1.86 billion USD of goods to the Thai market, up 3% compared to the same period in 2022. There were 5 items exported to Thailand with a turnover of 100 million. USD or more with a total value of USD 1.07 billion, equivalent to 57% of Vietnam’s total merchandise export turnover in the quarter.
Notably, among the positive growth items to Thailand, coffee is the item that witnessed the strongest increase over the same period in 2022. Specifically, coffee exports to Thailand in the first quarter reached 15 $85 million, up 255% over the same period in 2022.
In 2022, coffee exports to the land of the Golden Temple reached 76.6 million USD, up 16.23% over the same period in 2021.
According to a representative of the Agricultural Economic Office of Thailand, over the past five years, Thailand has produced an average of 26,000 tons of coffee beans annually, with demand increasing from 70,000 tons to 90,000 tons in the past five years. Over the past 5 years, coffee production in Thailand has continuously declined. The quality of coffee is also uneven, 70% of farmers are concentrated in southern Thailand, and the selection of varieties is not careful, causing the yield to decline. Moreover, erratic weather also has a negative impact on the production of farmers. The country therefore depends on imports to meet its demand for coffee.
According to the Vietnam Coffee Association, coffee production in crop year 2021/2022 will reach 1.5 million tons (more than 95% of production is Robusta), lower than 1.62 million tons in crop year 2020/2021. . Thus, Vietnam’s coffee output is more than 62 times higher than that of Thailand, becoming a major supplier of coffee for the people of the Golden Temple.
According to data from the International Coffee Organization, Vietnam is the second largest country in the world in terms of coffee export market share, just behind Brazil. Vietnam ranks first in coffee production with 2.4 tons/ha. In which, Dak Lak coffee source accounts for over 30% of output, with Buon Ma Thuot coffee brand present in more than 70 countries and territories. From now to 2025, the whole country will replant 75,000 ha and replant 32,000 ha of coffee, of which Arabica coffee accounts for about 20% of the total area.
In 2023, the outlook from the coffee industry is huge. Coffee is the second most traded commodity in the world after oil, with about a trillion cups drunk each year. Regarding the prospect of Vietnam’s coffee exports in 2023, the International Coffee Organization’s (ICO) March report showed that global coffee exports in February only reached 8.9 million bags, down 18%. compared to the same period last year.
At the same time, the ICO estimates the global coffee supply in the 2022-2023 crop year to reach 171.3 million bags. Meanwhile consumption reached 178.5 million bags, with this forecast the world coffee market may have a deficit of 7.3 million bags in the current crop year. Therefore, the export price of coffee will increase sharply in the near future, countries that also increase coffee imports from Vietnam such as Russia, Indonesia and Algeria are all countries that have recorded 3-digit growth in imports.
