The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development forecasts that the total export turnover of agricultural, forestry and fishery products in the second quarter will reach about 14 billion USD, up 25% compared to the first quarter, but still down 7% compared to the second quarter of 2022. In the next quarter, exports of wood and seafood are expected to recover slowly; and rice, vegetables are considered “stars of hope” of the agricultural industry.
Forecast export agriculture, forestry and fishery in the second quarter reached 14 billion USD, negative growth over the same period
By the end of the first quarter of 2023, the export of agricultural, forestry and fishery products reached US$11.2 billion, down 14% over the same period in 2022, completing nearly 21% of the target of US$54 billion for the whole year of 2023.
At the press conference in the first quarter of 2023, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Phung Duc Tien said that the agricultural sector has set a target that the total export turnover of agricultural, forestry and fishery products in the second quarter will reach about 14 billion USD. This figure is expected to increase by 25% compared to the first quarter, but still down 7% compared to the second quarter of 2022.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development determines that 2023 will be a year of many difficulties when bank interest rates are high, bank room is limited, consumption power of domestic and export markets decreases, input material prices increase…
Deputy Minister Phung Duc Tien recommended that businesses expand their exports to potential markets through a system of ambassadors and agricultural counselors.
Many key industries may recover slowly in the second quarter
In the first quarter of 2023, exports of many key agricultural products recorded a deep decrease such as seafood, timber, rubber… and there is no sign of recovery in the next quarter.
Accordingly, wood exports in the first quarter reached nearly $2.9 billion, down 28% over the same period in 2022. Export Department import (Ministry of Industry and Trade) said that at the present time, wood industry enterprises do not set profit targets but only need to have orders to keep labor and enough costs to cover the operation of the plant.
“The enterprise’s goal in the first half of 2023 is to break even, and hopefully by the third and fourth quarters, the market will be better, enterprises still have the force for production,” said the Import-Export Department.
In order to maintain operations in the current difficult period, many companies have actively reviewed their costs to reduce as much as possible; at the same time find niche markets, small orders to maintain operations, retain workers waiting for the market to recover.
Some businesses have sought to shift their direction to find customers in other markets such as Japan, China, and South Korea, etc. to offset the decline from major markets such as the US and EU.
Commenting on the wood market in 2023, at the General Meeting of Shareholders held a few days ago, Ms. Le Hai Lieu, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Duc Thanh Wood, said that “there is still not much light” because the tension between Russia and Ukraine has not cooled down yet. inflationary global increase.
Currently, this business has orders until May but the situation is still not optimistic, customers are still very cautious, they order with a very long delivery time. This business must offer many discount policies, share with customers to stimulate orders, with the goal of finding jobs for employees.
However, Wood Chairman Duc Thanh said that any crisis will have an end and what this business needs to do is to prepare for the time when the market gets better again.
“After the crisis, businesses are very “thirst” for goods because during the crisis, they do not dare to buy. So when the crisis is over, who is ready will win big,” said Ms. Lieu.
Similar to the wood industry, fisheries are also expected to have a weak recovery in the second quarter. Talking to the writer, Mr. Le Ba Anh, Deputy Director of the Department of Quality, Processing and Market Development said that seafood exports in the first quarter reached nearly 1.8 billion USD, down 29% compared to the same period in 2022. .
Mr. Le Ba Anh, Deputy Director of the Department of Quality, Processing and Market Development forecasted the situation of seafood exports in the second quarter. (Image: Pham Mo)
In seafood products, shrimp recorded the strongest decrease with 39% due to high inventories of the US market, and at the same time, Vietnamese shrimp had to compete fiercely with shrimp from Ecuador and India, which had the advantage. on pricing and logistics.
“It is forecasted that seafood exports will recover at the end of the second quarter or the beginning of the third quarter, when the Chinese market increases imports and consumption and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict subsides. Seafood exporters should pay attention to strong markets, close to China and Japan, “said Mr. Le Ba Anh.
There is still a ‘shining’ rice and vegetable industry
In the poor picture in the first quarter, rice, vegetables, and cashew nuts emerged as the “hopeful stars” of the agricultural industry.
(Data: General Department of Customs, General Statistics OfficeChart: Hoang Anh)
According to the General Statistics Office in March, rice exports reached 900,000 tons, equivalent to 480 million USD, up 70% in volume and 82% in value compared to March 2022.
Accumulated in the first quarter of 2023, rice exports reached 1.7 million tons, equivalent to 952 million USD, up 19% in volume and 30% in value over the same period in 2022. This is also the highest level in 12 years. years back.
Notably, rice exports to Indonesia recorded a sudden growth thanks to the country’s expected import of 2 million tons of rice reserves in 2023. Accordingly, in the first two months of the year, Vietnam exported 143,786 tons to Indonesia. rice, equivalent to 67 million USD, increased sharply by 33,732% in volume and 30.355% in turnover over the same period in 2022. The average price of rice exported to Indonesia reached 468 USD/ton, down 10%.
In response to demand signals from key markets such as Indonesia, Philippines, China, etc., rice exports in the next quarter and the whole year of 2023 are forecasted to grow well.
Also classified as a billion-dollar industry in the first quarter, vegetables and fruits recorded a growth of 11% thanks to China’s economic opening and many high-value fruits such as durian and passion fruit were officially exported to the market. billion people school.
Dang Phuc Nguyen, General Secretary of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, said that 2023 is forecasted to be an optimistic year for Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable exports, including the rise of durian.
“If this year, durian export turnover reaches 1 billion USD, it will definitely contribute to bringing the total export turnover of Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable industry to about 4 billion USD. These are predictions that are relatively likely to be achieved,” Nguyen said.
According to VietnamBiz.vn
