In the crop year 2020-2021, global coffee production is estimated to increase 1.9% to 171.9 million bags. Exports in the first four months of the crop year increased 3.7% to 41.88 million bags compared to 40.38 million bags in the same period of crop year 2019-2020.
According to ICO data, in crop year 2020-2021, global coffee production is estimated to increase 1.9% to 171.9 million bags of which arabica output increases by 5.2% to 101.88 million bags.
World coffee consumption is forecast to increase 1.3% to 166.63 million bags thanks to sustained social disparity measures, out-of-home consumption restriction and a slow recovery of the global economy.
MY 2020-2021 is expected to end with a surplus of 5.27 million bags due to oversupply.
Global coffee exports in the first four months of crop year 2020-2021
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Global exports in January this year reached 10.21 million bags, down from 10.59 million bags in January 2020. However, in the first four months of crop year 2020-2021, exports increased by 3.7% to 41.88 million bags compared to 40.38 million bags in the same period of crop year 2019-2020.
In the period October 2020 – January 2021, exports of arabica coffee in countries other than Colombia and Brazil (Other Milds) decreased by 11.9% to 5.84 million bags, in Colombia decreased by 3.4% to 5 , 1 million bags.
Global Robusta exports also fell 2.6% to 14.88 million bags. Meanwhile, Brazil’s arabica exports rose 21.8% to 16.06 million bags in the same period.
Africa
Africa’s coffee exports in the first four months of the 2020-2021 crop year fell 13% to 3.81 million bags due to a drop in shipments of coffee in three of the region’s five largest producing countries.
Uganda is Africa’s largest exporter with 1.73 million bags, up 6.8% in the first four months of crop year 2019-2020, thanks to the increase in green robusta coffee exports offsetting arabica exports. Decreases every two years.
In contrast, Ethiopian exports fell 31.6% to 798,000 bags, Côte d’Ivoire fell 56.2% to 245,000 bags and Kenya fell 13.1% to 185,000 bags, partly due to lower coffee prices over the years. by.
In addition, Tanzania’s exports increased by 16.5% to 458,000 bags thanks to improved export procedures.
Asia and Oceania
Coffee exports from Asia and Oceania fell 3.9% to 12.19 million bags between October 2020 and January 2021.
In particular, Vietnam’s exports fell 10.4% to 7.88 million bags, due to harvest delays and competition from other robusta producers.
Indonesia’s exports rose 24.2% to 2.47 million bags, as the country’s green robusta exports rose 39.7% to compensate for the drop in green arabica exports. In addition, the country’s instant coffee exports increased by 13.8% to 623,000 bags in the first four months of the season.
Exports from India, the region’s third largest producer, fell 7.1% to 1.31 million bags. Much of this decline was due to the country’s processed coffee exports, which fell 13.9% to 591,000 bags.
Central America and Mexico
Compared to the first four months of the 2019-2020 crop, exports from Mexico and Central America decreased by 17.5% to 2.62 million bags because countries in the region were severely affected by hurricanes Iota and Eta.
Notably, coffee shipments from Honduras, the region’s largest producer, fell 40% to 744,000 bags and from Nicaragua by 20.2% to 450,000 bags.
Guatemala exports fell 15.7% to 461,000 bags. By contrast, Mexico’s exports during October 2020 – January 2021 rose 22.8 percent to 798,000 bags, partly due to more available coffee volume compared to other countries in the region.
While Mexico’s processed coffee exports remained stable at 347,000 bags, the country’s green arabica exports rose 61.5% to 415,000 bags.
South America
In the first four months of crop year 2020-2021, South American exports increased by 15.5% to 23.26 million bags. In which, Brazil’s exports increased by 24.3% to 16.77 million bags.
Brazil’s green arabica exports rose 26.9% to 14.03 million bags, and the country’s green Robusta exports rose 26.1% to 1.43 million bags.
Exports from Colombia fell 2.9% to 4.69 million bags while the country’s output, according to estimates by the Federation of Colombian Coffee Growers, fell 3.2% to about 5.43 million bags in the first four months of crop year 2020 – 2021.
Although the country’s green arabica coffee exports fell 3.2% to 4.35 million bags, the country’s processed coffee exports rose 1.1% to 332,000 bags.
