Source: Institute of Policy and Strategy for Rural Development
In 2020, although the Korean economy has a negative growth rate of -1%, it is still one of the few countries appreciated by the strong impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many major investment banks and international research organizations have raised their forecast for Korea’s economic growth in 2021. According to the Korea International Financial Center on January 27, among foreign organizations regarding the growth rate of Korea in 2021, one half raised the growth rate forecast, the other half kept the current forecast. These organizations forecast the Korean economy to grow from 2.7% to 5% this year. Previously, 9 international investment banks such as Barclays, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, HSBC forecasted the real GDP growth rate of Korea in 2021 to be 3.4%, up 0.1% compared to the one-month forecast. before. The International Monetary Fund in its report “World Economic Prospects” published on January 26 also raised its forecast for Korea’s economic growth this year from 2.9% to 3.1%.
The Korean economy can withstand the COVID-19 epidemic well thanks to the relatively successful epidemic prevention and the recovery trend of exports. The negative economic growth in the context of a global pandemic is inevitable, but while the major developed countries such as the US, Japan, and Europe grow from -3% to -10%, the South Korea’s negative growth is still relatively positive. Exports, after a period of decline, have regained their momentum since last September.
Although international organizations have raised their forecast of the Korean economic growth rate in 2021, many concerns still remain. Exports are the driving force for the economy, but there are large disparities between sectors. Along with that, domestic consumption is stagnant and the recruitment market has yet to show positive signals. In the coming time, Korean domestic consumption will hardly recover strongly until the community immunity to COVID-19 is formed.
According to the Korean Ministry of Agriculture – Food and Rural Affairs, the highly pathogenic H5N8 avian influenza that appeared in this country and Japan since October last year is very contagious. Virus samples found in wild birds in Cheonan, 92km south of the capital Seoul, can cause poultry to become sick and die very quickly. In just over a month, the strong spread of avian flu caused the Korean livestock industry to destroy more than 4 million birds on epidemic farms and conduct zoning within a radius of 3. km from epidemic farms.
Accordingly, only in January 2021, the price of chicken eggs in Korea has increased by 25% due to a sharp decline in the layer of hens in farms across the country since November last year, when the outbreak of the flu broke out. Despite the Korean government’s efforts to curb inflation in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, prices of agricultural and livestock products are still rising. Consumer price index in the country increased by 0.6% year-on-year, according to the National Statistics Office of Korea, and has risen at less than 1% for the fourth consecutive month.
The Korean government has imported about 20 million eggs since the end of January 2021, in an effort to reduce potential supply ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday. Currently, this country also plans to import about 24 million more eggs in February to ensure domestic consumption. At the same time, the Government has temporarily removed tariff barriers on imported egg products, starting from 28 January to reduce the supply shortage.
In addition, authorities allowed local companies to import a total of 50,000 tons of fresh eggs and seven other types of egg products without tax until the end of June 30.
Korea is one of the leading partners of Vietnam in AFF exports. In January 2021, Vietnam exported US $ 180.0 million of key AFF products to South Korea, up 31.7% over the same period in 2020. Of which, wood and wood products had the highest export turnover. to this market accounted for 44.8%, followed by seafood with 33.7%, vegetables and fruits with 5.2%. Among the main export items, despite facing many difficulties due to the Covid-19 epidemic, only two items with a decrease in export turnover compared to the same period in 2020 are vegetables and pepper.
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