World coffee futures prices continued to fluctuate at low levels, while speculative sentiment expressed concern over political instability in the US and the weakening Reais again prompted the Brazilian to sell.
Robusta London Tue / 2021 week 1 chart (January 4, 2021 – January 9, 2021)
For the whole first week of 2021, London market had 5 consecutive declining sessions. Robusta coffee futures for delivery in March decreased by 68 USD, or by 4.91%, to 1,318 USD / ton and for delivery in March decreased by 66 USD, or by 4.73%, to 1,329 USD. / ton, very strong reductions. Trading volume is at medium level.
Similarly, New York market had 2 gaining sessions and 3 decreasing sessions. Arabica coffee futures for spot delivery in March decreased all 4.55 cents, or 3.55%, down to 123.7 cents / lb and futures for May delivery fell all 4.4 cents, or 3, 38%, to 125.75 cents / lb, the reductions are quite strong. Trading volume quite high above average.
The price of coffee beans in the Central Highlands market decreased by 1,200 – 1,300 VND, down from 32,700 to 33,100 VND / kg.
The decline in coffee prices on both exchanges was mainly driven by market sentiment rather than supply and demand factors. In particular, the rise of social distancing measures in Europe, coupled with instability from American politics, has caused most speculators to move their capital to seek temporary shelter, which has pushed gold prices skyrocketing.
It is noteworthy that the price of Robusta coffee in London fell sharply despite the estimate of exports from Vietnam plummeting due to the limitation of sea transport and the fear of the blockade of import ports, while the harvest this year. was delayed for nearly a month because La Nina weather occurred causing long-lasting storms in coffee producing countries on the Pacific Rim. However, market trade also speculates that the upcoming selling force from Vietnamese farmers will not diminish as they need the finance to cover the year-end debt and spend to celebrate the New Year’s Eve in early February. .
Although there have been many latest reports from coffee producing and exporting countries everywhere showing that the fluctuation of supply – demand in recent months is not really significant, but the market has started to show concern about Brazil production in 2021 due to drought at the beginning of the crop and is the year coffee trees produce low cyclical yields “Two years one”While according to the ICO report, the surplus for coffee year 2019/2020 was only about 961,000 bags and Brazil exported in 2019 to a record 36.2 million bags.
The latest Trader Commitment Report (CFTC) from the Arabica coffee market in New York shows that as of Tuesday December 29, the non-commercial speculation division increased their net buying position by 8, 67% registered to net buy in 23,122 lots, equivalent to 6,554,985 bags. This net long position is most likely to have dropped again after the mixed trade but has been somewhat negative since then.
The latest CFTC report from the Robusta coffee market in London shows that, by the same reporting period, short-term speculation of money management funds had cut their net buying position by 3.86% from a The previous week, down registered net buying of 4,450 lots, equivalent to 741,667 bags. This net long position has most likely declined sharply after a period of very negative trade since then.
Robusta coffee inventories are certified and tracked by the London floor, as of Monday, January 4, they have increased by 1,980 tons, which is 1.44% higher than the previous commercial week, to register at 139,230. tons (equivalent to 2,320,500 bags, 60 kg bags).
English (giacaphe.com)
