Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
Coffee exports in October 2020 are estimated at 90 thousand tons with a value of US $ 167 million, bringing the volume and value of coffee exports in the first 10 months of 2020 to 1.34 million tons and $ 2.32 billion, down 1.3% in volume and 0.7% in value over the same period in 2019. In the first 9 months of the year, Germany, the US and Italy continued to be the three largest coffee consuming markets of Vietnam with The market share is 13% (reaching 280.8 million USD), 9.3% (reaching 199.6 million USD) and 8.3% (reaching 178.9 million USD). Markets with increased export value were Poland (up 44.2%, reaching 32.4 million USD), Japan (up 17.2%, reaching 146.3 million USD) and South Korea (up 9, 8%, reaching 50.9 million USD), while coffee export value decreased the most in UK (down 32.3%, reaching million USD) and Thailand (down 16.1%, reaching 49 , 1 million USD). The average export coffee price in the first 9 months of 2020 reached US $ 1,740 / ton, up 1.7% over the same period in 2019. It is estimated that in October 2020, the average export coffee price reached US $ 1,852 / ton, down 1.8% over September 2020 but up 2.6% over the same period in 2019.
In October 2020, world coffee prices on the derivatives exchanges decreased. Compared to the previous month, the price of Robusta coffee delivered in November 2020 in London market decreased 34 USD / ton to 1,271 USD / ton. However, at the end of October 2020, typhoon No. 9 (international name Molave) is forecasted to be a dangerous storm in 2020, and will land directly in Vietnam’s key coffee producing areas. While Vietnam is entering the harvest season, this will push up Robusta coffee prices slightly in the near future. In the New York market, the spot Arabica coffee price in December 2020 decreased 1.5% to 2,344 USD / ton, while the term for delivery in March 2020 also decreased slightly by 1.4% to 2,406 USD / ton. . Coffee prices fell due to market disappointment because the new funding package has not been approved by the US Congress, while weather forecast is good across Brazil’s major coffee growing states. In addition, the main cause of the decline is still due to the Brazilian Real continued to decline, becoming the most devalued domestic currency on the world money market. Accordingly, global agricultural prices remain low, especially key Brazilian commodities such as coffee or sugarcane …
The domestic coffee market increased volatility over the past month. Compared to September 2020, the price of Robusta coffee in the Central Highlands provinces increased by 500-600 VND / kg to 31,800 – 32,600 VND / kg. Coffee prices are highest in Dak Lak province and lowest in Lam Dong province. Robusta coffee FOB price at the port of Ho Chi Minh City reached the highest level of 33,800 VND / kg. Vietnam officially entered the coffee harvest season 2020/21 at the end of October 2020. Despite unfavorable news about the world market, coffee prices in Vietnam have recovered slightly. It is expected that this crop year, supply scarcity will help keep coffee prices stable.
The Covid-19 epidemic was exploding again in the world, with social measures being strictly applied until Christmas (December 25, 2020). This is the peak of New Year shopping in Europe and America, and is also the period of great coffee consumption in the cold season at the end of the year. It is forecasted that Robusta coffee consumption will increase as more people have to work from home and instant coffee will be more popular in the near future. Demand for Robusta coffee is forecasted to exceed supply by nearly 60 thousand tons while Arabica coffee has an oversupply of more than 350 thousand tons. In the last months of 2020, Vietnam’s coffee exports are expected to be active again when receiving many positive signals from the market.
