Coffee prices rebounded from concerns about the next crop of Brazil’s output falling according to forecasts, while USDX’s erratic fluctuations made speculators not really poured capital into the leading agricultural market.
Robusta London T1 / 2021 week 46 chart (November 9, 2020 – November 14, 2020)
For the whole week 46, London market had 2 decreasing sessions and 3 gaining sessions. Robusta coffee futures for delivery in January increased by $ 60, or up 4.44%, to $ 1,410 / ton and for March delivery increased by $ 56, or 4.11%, to $ 1,419. / ton, strong increases. Trading volume remained below average.
Similarly, New York market had 4 gaining sessions and 1 decreasing session. Arabica coffee futures for immediate delivery in December increased all 2.3 cents, or 2.15%, to 109.25 cents / lb and futures for March delivery increased by all 2.75 cents, or 2, 51%, to 112.2 cents / lb, the gains are very significant. Trading volume is very high above average.
The price of coffee beans in the Central Highlands market increased from 1,000 to 1,100 VND, and fluctuated in the 33,700 – 34,200 VND / kg bracket.
Coffee prices on two floors followed up momentum when it was forecasted that Brazil would reduce output in the next crop, while consecutive storms in Vietnam caused the harvest of the new crop to be delayed for several weeks.
According to forecasts of the US National Weather Service – Forecast Center has up to 95% chance for a La Nina weather phenomenon to appear in the Pacific. History shows that La Nina will cause much rain for coffee producing countries in the Pacific belt such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Colombia, Peru and Central America, but cause drought for eastern Brazil and regional countries. East Africa.
However, the main impact on derivatives markets at the moment is the unconfirmed US presidential election results and the “Bulging” USDX, when the risk of an epidemic of covid-19 increases, will prevent all efforts to recover the world economy as stated by major central banks.
Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafe) in Brazil reported coffee exports in October reached 4.1 million coffee bags of all kinds (including coffee beans, instant coffee and converted roast) , up 11.5% over the same period last year, reaching the second largest monthly export volume this year. This result brought exports in the first 10 months of 2020 to a total of 35 million bags of coffee of all kinds, setting a historical record in the same period.
Reported data of Vietnam Customs shows that coffee exports in October reached 91,372 tons (equivalent to 1,522,867 bags), down 8.4% from the previous month, bringing coffee exports in the first 10 months of 2020. up to a total of 1,341,864 tons (approximately 2.35 million bags, 60 kg bags), down 1.2% compared to exports in the first 10 months of 2019.
The latest Traders Commitment Report (CFTC) from New York’s Arabica coffee market shows that non-commercial speculators have cut their net buying positions by 73.03%, for the trade week to. On Tuesday, November 3, down registered net buying of 2,602 lots, equivalent to 737,655 bags. This net long position was most likely reduced further after the mixed trade but has been somewhat positive since then.
The latest CFTC report from Robusta coffee market in London shows that, by the same reporting period, short-term speculation of money management funds decreased their net selling position by 27.56% compared to trading week. In the previous period, down registered net sale at 5,681 lots, equivalent to 946,833 bags. This net short position has most likely declined further after a period of mostly active trade since then.
As of Monday, November 9, inventories of Robusta coffee certified and tracked by the London floor have increased by 6,020 tons, or 4.81% from the previous trading week, to registration at 131,210 tons. (equivalent to 2,186,833 bags, 60 kg bags).
English (giacaphe.com)
