Coffee prices fluctuate only slightly due to the majority of world financial markets and investors are watching the US presidential election results, despite adverse information from two coffee producers. top of the world.
Robusta London T1 / 2021 week 45 chart (from November 2, 2020 – November 7, 2020)
For the whole week 45, London market had 3 decreasing sessions and 2 gaining sessions. Robusta coffee futures for immediate delivery in January decreased by all 1 USD, or 0.07%, down to 1,350 USD / ton, while futures for delivery in March increased by all 4 USD, or up 0.29%, up. 1,363 USD / ton, slight decrease / increase. Trading volume below average.
In contrast, New York market had 3 gaining sessions and 2 decreasing sessions. Arabica coffee futures for immediate delivery in December increased all 2.55 cents, or 2.44%, to 106.95 cents / lb and futures for March delivery increased by all 2.6 cents, ie increased by 2, 43%, to 109.45 cents / lb, very significant increases. Trading volume is quite high above average.
The price of coffee beans in the Central Highlands market increased by 200-300 VND, up fluctuating in the frame of 32,600 – 33,200 VND / kg.
Arabica coffee prices rebounded when Procafé and the National Agricultural Federation (CNA) Brazil forecast that next year’s crop will decrease by 14-21% of total national output, not just due to cycle. “Two years one” but also due to lack of rain to make cotton at the beginning of the crop. Observers also believe that Brazil will be in short supply next year due to their oversold when the Reais exchange rate drops to a very low level.
Meanwhile, although the demand for instant coffee at home increased because of social disparity, Robusta coffee prices have not really improved, as the global economy faces the risk of a recession. Due to the second covid-19 epidemic, many countries have to re-establish measures of social distancing.
The market also expressed concern when Vietnam, the largest Robusta producer in the world, constantly suffered from storms, causing the harvest of the new crop not only to be delayed, but also led to the risk of the quality of the grain decline because lack of sunlight for drying.
The International Coffee Organization’s (ICO) October Market Report also expresses concern as global consumption in the final quarter of 2020 is likely to decline as more countries in the coffee consuming bloc The world leader in the northern hemisphere was declared to be partially shut down as the covid-19 epidemic broke out again. While ICOs also estimate the global has fallen into a small oversupply with about 1.24 million bags
The latest Trader Commitment Report (CFTC) from New York’s Arabica coffee market shows that non-commercial speculators have cut their net buying positions by 37.71%, in the trade week to. On Tuesday, October 27, net buying registration was at 9,648 lots, equivalent to 2,735,165 bags. This net long position is most likely to have continued to decline after a period of flat overall trade since then.
The latest CFTC report from Robusta coffee market in London shows that, by the same reporting period, short-term speculation of money management funds has reduced their net selling position by 5.30% compared to the trading week. Previously, down registered net sale at 7,842 lots, equivalent to 1,307,000 bags. This net short position is likely to have declined further after a period of mixed trade but has been somewhat more positive since then.
As of Monday, November 2, inventories of Robusta coffee certified and tracked by London floor increased by 4,260 tons, or 3.52% compared to the previous trading week, to registration at 125,190 tons. (equivalent to 2,086,500 bags, 60 kg bags).
English (giacaphe.com)
