The decline of USDX due to the negative impact of US stocks has led to speculators in the derivatives markets, while the global coffee supply is temporarily stable due to the completion of Brazil. Harvest the new crop this year.
Robusta London chart 11/2020 week 37 (from September 7, 2020 – September 12, 2020)
For the whole week of 37, the London market had 3 gaining sessions and 2 decreasing sessions. Robusta coffee futures for immediate delivery in November decreased by 11 USD, or 0.76%, down to 1,433 USD / ton and futures for January delivery decreased by 9 USD, or 0.62% to 1,445 USD. / ton, slight decreases. Trading volume is at medium level.
Meanwhile, New York market had 2 gaining sessions and 2 decreasing sessions. Arabica coffee futures for immediate delivery in December decreased all 1.55 cents, or 1.16%, down 132.45 cents / lb and futures for delivery in March decreased all 1.15 cents, ie decreased 0, 85%, to 133.4 cents / lb, slight decreases. Trading volume remained quite high above average.
The price of coffee beans in the Central Highlands market has decreased by 200-300 VND, down to fluctuate in the frame of 33,100 – 33,700 VND / kg.
Futures prices weakened again after Brazil completed the harvest this year and the new supply was sold to consumer markets estimated at more than 50% of the output, according to Safras & Mercados.
The Exporters Association (Cecafé) in Brazil reported that August exports totaled 3.3 million bags of coffee of all kinds, including 2.5 million bags of Arabica natural, 472,200 bags of Conilon Robusta, and instant coffee. Tan and roasted equivalent to 289,700 bags, bringing exports in the first 8 months of this year to 26.4 million bags. This is a relatively high performance compared to exports over the past 5 years.
Meanwhile, the Institute of Geography – Statistics (IBGE) of Brazil has adjusted its forecast of harvested crop output to 59.6 million bags, an increase of 0.6 million bags compared to the previous forecast. It is interesting to note that IBGE’s forecast is often underestimated by the market by about 10%, so the forecast of this increase does not affect market sentiment but also contributes to confirm Brazil this year. “Good season”.
The National Coffee Federation (FNC) in Colombia reported August exports reached 1,118,000 bags, down 100,000 bags, or 8.21% down from the same period last year. This resulted in coffee exports in the first 11 months of the current coffee season 2019/2020 reaching a total of 11,336,000 bags, a decrease of 904,000 bags, a decrease of 7.39% compared to the same period of the previous coffee season. The reason for the decline is attributed to Colombia’s efforts to apply social measures to limit the harmful effects of the covid-19 pandemic.
The latest Trader Commitment Report (CFTC) from New York’s Arabica coffee market found that as of Tuesday, September 1, the non-commercial speculation division increased its net buying position by 31. , 61% registered net buying of 29,240 lots, or 8,289,410 bags and was likely to have increased further after a period of very active trade since then.
The latest CFTC report from Robusta coffee market in London shows that, by the same reporting period, short-term speculation of money management funds increased their net buying position by 41.56% to subscribe. net was at 13,135 lots or 2,189,167 bags and was most likely to have increased after a period of active trade since then.
As of Monday 7/9, Robusta coffee inventories certified and tracked by the London floor have decreased by 100 tons, or 0.09% lower than the previous trading week, to registration at 109,670 tons ( equivalent to 1,827,833 bags, 60 kg bags).
English (giacaphe.com)
